• All 103 economists polled by Reuters expect Fed to leave rates unchanged

• Futures suggests no change in US interest rate before July 2027

• In advance 18GMT rate decision EUR/USD close to neutral levels

• Middle 2026 range is 1.1746 - EUR/USD 1.1697-1.1720 on Apr 29

• The centre of the 20-day Bollinger bands is 1.1697

• Traders are betting that the euro rises while elevated oil price weighs

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Wednesday April 29

• EUR/USD: 1.1650-60 (3.5BLN), 1.1670-75 (1.3BLN), 1.1695-1.1705 (3BLN)

• 1.1725-30 (1.5BLN), 1.1750-55 (1.6BLN), 1.1770 (311M), 1.1795-1.1800 (1.2BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7875 (223M), 0.7890-0.7900 (683M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8660 (243M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3425-35 (630M), 1.3460-70 (276M), 1.3500 (305M), 1.3650 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7120-25 (1.4BLN), 0.7150 (895M), 0.7200 (398M), 0.7220 (315M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5730 (620M), 0.5775 (375M), 0.5850 (387M), 0.5950 (452M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3620-30 (650M). EUR/JPY: 189.50 (564M)

• USD/JPY: 159.00 (460M), 159.10-15 (805M), 160.00 (225M)

• FX options wrap - When nobody's scared, be scared (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Catalyst Metals fall as much as 6.5% to A$5.650, their lowest point since March 24

• The gold miner expects all-in sustaining cost to be above the guidance range at A$2,750/oz to A$2,950/oz for FY26

• Catalyst Metals says it shall retain FY26 production outlook at 100koz-110koz for gold

• CYL stock down 22.7%, YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Motherson Sumi Wiring India down 2.2% at 38.4 rupees

• Wiring harnesses manufacturer posts modest 1.2% rise in Q4 profit to 1.67 billion rupees ($17.62 million); firm's margins pressured by higher copper prices through the quarter

• Nomura ("Buy"; reduces PT to 50 rupees) notes that while co has capitalised on strong volume growth, margins have struggled due to delayed pass-through of copper costs and longer-than-expected margin recovery in greenfield plants

• Copper-related margin pressure to ease going forward as copper costs have now stabilized

• Believes greenfield plants should achieve improved profitability in the second half of FY27

• Stock rated as "Buy" on average by 10 analysts; median PT at 50.71 rupees

• YTD, stock 21.6%

($1 = 94.7800 Indian rupees)
(Reporting by Mridula Kumar in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia after closing 0.1% lower on Tuesday

• Bulls encouraged by bounce from 100-day MA at 1.3466

• But elevated oil prices, inflation fears likely to cap rallies

• Oil supply concerns to intensify as U.S. to extend Iran blockade

• UK 10-year gilt yields recorded their highest close since 2008 on Tue

• Focus shifts to Fed rate decision Wednesday, BoE rate meeting Thursday

• Support 1.3500, 1.3450-60, resistance 1.3570-75, 1.3600

• Tuesday range 1.34635-1.3539, Asia range 1.35115-1.3528
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% after inflation surges in first Iran war impacted update

• AU Q1 CPI 4.1% y/y (poll 4.2%), 1.4% q/q (poll 1.4%), trimmed mean 3.5% y/y

• Futures market pricing now implies 75% probability of May 5 OCR hike

• Further RBA hikes likely to spur move beyond 0.7250-85 resistance zone

• Iran stalemate pivotal, WSJ reports Trump warns of extended Iran blockade

• No FFR change expected from FOMC Wed, Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair

• Range Asia 0.7168-895, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY steady in Asia after closing 0.1% higher on Tuesday

• Elevated oil prices support; Brent futures rise for 7th straight session Tue

• Boosted by higher U.S. yields on inflation fears; 2-yr yield at 3-week peak

• BOJ's hawkish hold no relief for JPY as Ueda dampens the growth outlook

• Fed rate decision due Wed; Japanese markets closed for a local holiday

• Resistance 159.90-160.00, 160.45-50, support 158.95-159.00

• Tuesday range 158.96-159.79, Asia range 159.54-159.60
Japan yen positioning Japan yen positioning:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.5917 high as Middle East stalemate stays dominant

• Brent crude +2.8% despite UAE withdrawing from OPEC, supply fears lingering

• Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair expected to yield no change Wed

• 0.5930 a major NZD inflection point short term, rally would accelerate above

• Rising need for May RBNZ hike may provide catalyst for renewed NZD upswing

• Range NZ 0.58816-88, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5930 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Removes extraneous words in 7th line)

• AUD/USD unchanged late Tue with attention trained on looming inflation data

• AU Q1 CPI 0130 GMT (Reuters poll +4.2% y/y), will firm RBA OCR trajectory

• UAE withdrawal from OPEC not enough to quell oil supply anxiety, WTI +3.4%

• U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz stalemate remains dominant market theme

• AUD will require new impetus to prompt challenge of 0.7250-85 resistance

• No change expected from FOMC Wed, Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair

• U.S. Apr consumer confidence 92.8, Reuters poll poll 89.0

• Overnight range 0.7151-874, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

SEB Research likes to express GBP shorts via options.

"Despite a negative equity- and commodities beta, Sterling has held up relatively well against the USD since the start of the Iran war, supported by a carry tailwind after the sharp repricing of the Bank of England. GBP has found itself in a “carry sweet spot” but faces downside risks regardless which direction interest rates move; higher rates risk denting the growth outlook and reigniting fiscal concerns, while a repricing of the BoE lower would erode Sterling’s current carry protection," SEB notes.

"With no obvious currency to short GBP against, downside is best expressed via a EUR/GBP call spread or a carry basket approach to isolate idiosyncratic UK risk while minimizing carry drag," SEB adds.

• GBP$ held a slight loss in NY afternoon, -0.1% at 1.3515; NorAm range 1.3514-1.3464

• Pair bounced off early dip to 100-DMA (1.3465); focus shifts from Mideast to Fed, BoE

• UK political, geopolitical and fiscal concerns keep downward pressure on GBP$

• UK long-end gilt yields back near trend highs ramps up fiscal angst ahead of BoE meeting

• BoE expected to hold on Thursday, persistent inflation has futures price 2+ hikes in 2026

• GBP$ res 1.3539 Tuesday high, 1.3544 daily cloud top, 1.3599 trend high Apr 17

• Supt 1.3500 psychological supt, 1.3465 the 100-DMA, 1.3416 the 200-DMA

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the April BoC meeting on Wednesday and discusses CAD outlook.

"March inflation surprised to the downside notwithstanding the energy shock, and the latest employment report indicated stabilization but little improvement from a year ago, which our economists expect should allow the BoC to remain on hold at the April meeting," GS notes.

"Fundamentally, this leaves us less constructive CAD in the more medium term, especially with USMCA uncertainty likely to weigh on the currency ahead of the July 1 deadline. However, as long as the terms of trade implications of the energy shock remain at the fore, Canada's idiosyncratic domestic considerations should remain secondary FX drivers. In that environment, CAD should continue to outperform, consistent with its high sensitivity to oil-price shocks in our GSTOT framework and its positive correlation with the broad Dollar," GS adds.

By Justin McQueen EUR/USD continues to grind in a tight range, with the 200-day moving average doing its job on the downside, a level that has been tested and held on multiple occasions now, which gives it credibility as near-term support. Topside remains capped though, and there is little appetite to chase this higher with both the Fed and ECB on the docket. In turn, with dual central bank risk ahead this is keeping a lid on any directional conviction.

Brent crude pushing through $110 is a headwind worth flagging. The textbook read is EUR-negative via the terms of trade channel, but the pair has absorbed it well. Equities staying firm and yield spreads nudging modestly in EUR's favour have provided enough to offset the oil drag. Though the resilience appears notable, it is far from a platform to build from. Instead, this is more of a function of nothing going materially wrong at present. On the ECB, a June hike is near-fully priced, and the latest consumer inflation expectations – three-year metric jumping to 3.0% from 2.5% – gives ECB President Christine Lagarde the data cover to maintain a tightening bias. However, the market has already done the heavy lifting on pricing, so the bar to deliver a hawkish surprise is now materially higher. If Lagarde simply ratifies what is priced and does not lean in with explicit forward guidance on the pace of tightening, that risks an EUR pullback. In turn, the risk asymmetry for the meeting skews marginally to the downside for EUR.

For now, EUR is in a holding pattern. Price action stays listless and two-way until we get clarity from the central banks.
EURUSD daily chart today


ECB pricing at each meeting


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Danske Research previews this week's April FOMC meeting and the Fed trajectory under the incoming Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.

"This week’s FOMC meeting will likely remain uneventful in terms of actual policy signals. With no new economic forecasts or dots, Powell’s remarks will be in focus, and naturally not just because of policy. One of the more interesting things to follow will be if Powell makes an announcement about staying or stepping down from the Fed Board of Governors after his term as the Chair ends. Kevin Warsh is taking Stephen Miran’s seat on the Board, so even if Warsh is open to the idea of cutting rates, he is also replacing the most dovish member of the current Board. But if Powell decides to step down, and Trump ‘renominates’ Miran back to the Board, the FOMC could become marginally more willing to ease policy," Danske notes.

"We still call for two more Fed cuts this year, in September and December, while markets only price in a cumulative 9bp worth of cuts by year-end. A key argument for our dovish call is a view that US economic growth will disappoint the current consensus," Danske adds.

Geopolitical tensions, domestic political turmoil and UK fiscal and inflation concerns are expected to keep sterling under pressure, as GBP/USD retests its recently bruised 100-DMA support near 1.3465.

The pound struggled in Tuesday’s session, caught in a broad global risk exit triggered by rising crude oil prices and the apparent stalling of Middle East peace negotiations. This flight to safety has left pro-cyclical currencies like the pound vulnerable to shifting sentiment. Compounding the external pressure is a brewing domestic political storm. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing intensified scrutiny over his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the U.S.

This political angst, coupled with rising UK gilt yields, has brought the country's fiscal fragilities back into sharp focus. With inflation remaining stubbornly persistent and economic growth continuing to be subpar, the pound is struggling to find a positive catalyst.

Technically, GBP/USD is currently navigating a bearish landscape, trading below psychological support at 1.35 near 1.3492. Immediate resistance is pegged at the 10-DMA by 1.3517 and the Ichimoku conversion line at 1.3523. A sustained move above these levels would be required to test the daily cloud top at 1.3544 and mount a run at the April 17 high at 1.3599.

On the downside, support is anchored at the 100-DMA of 1.3465, near today's low of 1.3463. A break below this floor could see the pair retreat toward the critical 200-DMA at 1.3416 and then the daily cloud base at 1.3386.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its USD and EUR views.

"USD View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish. The window for a modest DXY decline to 94 or so is widening in the medium term, though near-term uncertainty over energy supplies keeps us neutral overall," MS notes.

EUR View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish. We see a wider window for EUR/USD to rise to 1.20-1.25 in the coming months, while the window for EUR/USD below 1.15 has gotten narrower thanks to the 'oil tax' on the US consumer limiting US aggregate demand," MS adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses May seasonality patterns in equity markets.

"It is commonly suggested that the equity market cycle favors selling in May to reduce exposure to risk assets ahead of a mid-year/summer lull period as market participants take vacations, liquidity declines and drawdowns may worsen," BofA notes.

"When we review 6-, 3- and 1-month average trends, we do not see this bias. In fact, we could argue that seasonality favors buying in May and selling in July/August ahead of Aug-Oct weakness," BofA adds.

• Cable falls to 1.3464 as safe-haven dollar strengthens on higher oil prices

• 1.3464 is the lowest level since Friday (1.3455 was the low that day)

• 30-year gilt yield rises to 5.708%, its highest level since September 2025

• 1.35 is now a GBP/USD resistance level. 1.3539 was Asian session high

• Ex-aide McSweeney backs UK PM Starmer over Mandelson appointment

• UK's Reeves, asked about a rent freeze, says she wants to help tenants

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has rebounded from the Asia 158.96 low, to hit 159.68 in London, EBS data shows

• The yen initially firmed after the Bank of Japan held rates steady in a 6-3 split vote

• Bank of Japan keeps rates steady but hawkish split points to June hike

• Spot slipped below the kijun line in Asia, currently at 159.03, but is now well above

• Scope for a retest of the crucial 160 level, that traders worry could prompt Tokyo to intervene

• Fin Min Katayama: Japan ready '24 hours' to act on currency swings

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, tracking decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold 1.4% at $4,617.67/ounce, its lowest level since April 7

• Bullion prices fall to three-week low as high oil prices fuel inflation worries and investors await central bank decisions on Middle East risks

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields down 1.6%, Harmony Gold falls 0.7% and AngloGold Ashanti decline 2.2%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines falls marginally and Kinross Gold dips 0.8%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

April 28 (Reuters) - Sterling traders are alert to British political risks as a Tuesday vote nears on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer should face a Parliamentary probe over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain's ambassador to the U.S. - as well as next week's local elections. Labour's large majority in Parliament means it would be a huge GBP-negative surprise if more lawmakers voted in favour of an inquiry into Starmer. The vote is expected this afternoon, hours after Starmer's former aide Morgan McSweeney answers questions from Parliament's foreign affairs committee about Mandelson's appointment.

If Starmer avoids the frying pan, he then faces a potential fire from Welsh parliament, Scottish Parliament and English local elections on May 7. If Labour performs abysmally in those elections, Starmer will be blamed - and the risk of a GBP-negative Labour leadership challenge will rise. Should a leadership challenge come to pass and Starmer exits Downing Street, the pound could weaken on fears that Labour could choose a successor from the soft left of the party who might pursue a looser fiscal policy.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sinks to 1.1687 on Tuesday from 1.1754 on Monday

• Brent rises to $111 pb on Tuesday from $106 on Monday

• Brent has risen over $40/bbl during the conflict

• EUR/USD virtually unchanged and traders still betting on a rise

• Inflation in the pipeline, likely rate hikes and greater risk aversion

• An enduring war and much higher oil may soon affect currencies

•
EUR/USD little changed as oil rockets


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY dropped from 159.57 to 158.96, so far on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Yen firms as BOJ holds in split vote, kicking off big week for central banks

• The BOJ left its policy rate as is at 0.75% but the vote was 6-3

• The market viewed this as hawkish, hold vote influenced by Econ Minister Kiuchi

• Note USD/JPY failed on four occasions in April to register a close below 158.49 Fibo

• A bear trap is set when a mkt breaks below a tech level but then reverses and is usually bullish

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

• Fin Min Katayama: Japan ready '24 hours' to act on currency swings

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3512 as safe-haven dollar strengthens on higher oil prices

• Trump not happy with latest Iran proposal to end the war, U.S. official says

• 1.3512 is the lowest level since Monday's 1.3575 peak (high since April 17)

• UK PM Starmer faces vote on possible parliamentary probe over Mandelson

• Vote slated for this afternoon (BST), after ex-aide McSweeney speaks to MPs

• King Charles to promote UK-US unity in rare speech to Congress, at 1900 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)