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May 31 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Policy Divergence, UK Growth Bring Pressure Back To Sterling

By Paul Spirgel  —  May 31 - 09:50 AM

GBP/USD fell 0.74% to 1.2567 on Monday heading into the month end and remained in danger of reverting toward mid-May triple-bottom lows by 1.2330 as reduced UK growth expectations focused attention on the possibility of the BoE further tempering rate-hike expectations.

Even after a four-big-figure rise off the 2022 low of 1.2156 struck on May 13, the pound remains down slightly for the month, having backed away from the May 27 high of 1.2667.

Sterling's inability to hold gains above 1.2652, the 50% Fib of 1.3147-1.2156 April-May slide, may embolden traders to make another run at the 2022 lows.

The pound's May rise was predicated almost exclusively on non-UK factors, such as receding terminal Fed rate expectations, rather than positive UK stimuli.

If UK growth prospects diminish further and the BoE dials back current expectations of 25-bp rate hikes per MPC meeting, the May 2020 low at 1.2075 will come into focus.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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