• AUD/USD +0.5% wtd as probability of May RBA hike continues to firm

• AU Q1 CPI due Wed (poll +4.2% y/y), critical for forward RBA expectations

• Futures market pricing now implies 87% probability of May 5 OCR hike

• AUD targeting 0.7250-85 resistance, break above will trigger next leg higher

• Middle East remains key focus, oil firmer on supply concerns, DXY -0.1%

• U.S. reviewing Iran proposal that leaves nuclear issue for post-war talks

• Focus shifting to FOMC meeting outcome Wed, Powell's last as Fed Chair

• Overnight range 0.7165-0.7200, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)