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Apr 11 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD 1.00 Looms If Le Pen Springs Brexit-Like Shock

By Rob Howard  —  Apr 11 - 05:05 AM

EUR/USD could plummet towards 1.00 if Marine Le Pen unexpectedly beats Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election runoff.

A surprise Le Pen victory on April 24 might do to the euro what the 2016 Brexit vote shock did to sterling, as France would lurch from being a driving force for European integration to being led by a euro-sceptic. nA5N2VD01K

Although opinion polls suggest the result of the Macron-Le Pen runoff could be very tight, the latest odds-tracking chart published on the Political Betting website suggests Le Pen only has a 16% chance of victory.

Nevertheless, Macron will not be able to count on French voters' traditional anti-far right front in the runoff. nL2N2W909R

EUR/USD, which was last at 1.00 in 2002, hit a six-day EBS high of 1.0955 on Monday on relief that Macron earned more votes than Le Pen in Sunday's first round. nL3N2W91S4nL2N2W90DYnL2N2W801O

Related comment: nL2N2W40G7

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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