RBC Research discusses USD/CAD outlook if a US-Ira deal were to be reached.

"Despite the USD unwinding most of its risk premium for the conflict, price action suggests markets still exhibit a bias to sell the USD. Thus, if a deal were to be reached, the knee-jerk reaction is likely to be a lower USD on ‘euphoria’ and thereby translate into a similar reaction in USD/CAD," RBC notes.

"But beyond this initial reaction, USD/CAD is not the best USD-pair to be chasing the downside momentum under a ‘deal’ scenario. If there is no longer an urgency for the BoC to shift to rate hikes and if a deal does not cause the Fed to shift more dovish from a ‘hold’ stance in the coming months, then the relatively wide US-CA rate differentials will act as a floor under USD/CAD once the initial optimism plays out,' RBC adds.