Morgan Stanley Research previews the US June retail sales report due on Thursday.

"We expect total retail sales rose by 0.1% m/m in June, with control group sales up 0.5%m/m. We expect total retail sales ex autos declined by 0.2%m/m. Total sales are dragged down by gas stations (down 6.1%m/m as gas prices fell) as well as sales of building materials (down 0.5%m/m). Other components rise (autos up 1.4%m/m, and restaurants up 0.2%)," MS notes.

"Our estimate of retail control is boosted by the following factors: Prime day and other competing promotions moved to June this year instead of July, and along with the World Cup, we expect online sales were strong this month; Census seasonal factors for June 2026 and our estimate of a sharper rise in control group prices (because of food and core goods)," MS adds.