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Thomson Reuters
Feb 27 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Torn Between Weak Data, External Positives
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 26 - 09:55 PM

The AUD/USD is being buffeted by shifts in focus between strong external and weak domestic factors.
Hopes of an end to the U.S.-China trade dispute have lifted key commodities and encouraged buying of emerging market assets.
This is supporting the AUD/USD, along with a growing view the USD is set to slide.
Offsetting the positive forces are a dovish turn in RBA expectations and uncertainty surrounding the trade relationship between Australia and China.
Today's very weak Australian Q4 construction work data nL3N20M1AI will likely harden the view of those looking for the RBA to ease by the end of 2019.
It also increases the downside risks to Thursday's Q4 capex release and if the headline and spending forecasts for the next two years are weaker than expected, it will darken the outlook for the Australian economy.
For the AUD/USD to close above the 200-day moving average (currently 0.7256) for the first time since March 15, the external and domestic outlooks will have to be more in sync.
A close below the 10-day moving average at 0.7145 would warn a short-term top is in place around 0.7200.

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