EUR/USD's downtrend has so far just barely managed to avert extremely bearish closes below crucial supports into and after Jackson Hole event risks, but this week's U.S. and euro zone data could tip the balance in favor of a breakdown or signal scope for a correction higher.

Prices on Friday, amid Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB president Christine Lagarde's Jackson Hole speeches, broke below the 76.4% Fibo of the May-July rise and 61.8% of this year's advance at 1.0786/85, but didn't close below them to signal further retracements.

Friday's 1.07655 trend low on EBS was also near the uptrend line across March and May lows and the 100-week moving average.

Prices were little changed on Monday, with the bounce from Friday's lows likely limited by Monday's ECB report of further slowing of euro zone lending.

Big macro tests will come from Thursday's euro zone CPI and U.S. core PCE, spending and income, followed by Friday's U.S. employment and ISM manufacturing reports.

Whether the ECB remains priced as more likely than the Fed to hike once more this year after the data should determine if EUR/USD resumes sliding toward May's lows or rebounds toward the bearishly aligned 21-, 100-DMAs, last at 1.0914/27 and by last week's 1.0930 high.

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