• AUD (1%) firms, USD on the backfoot after JPY intervention triggers dollar sales

• Spot pushing back into the 0.72 figure - level has repeatedly capped topside

• A convincing break here would open the door to the April high at 0.7222

• Policy tailwind firmly in play with an RBA hike expected on 5 May

• Dips into 0.7100-15 should continue to attract buyers, keeping bull structure intact
AUDUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Danske Research reviews yesterday's April FOMC meeting.

"Powell announced that he will continue as a Fed Governor past his term as a Chair but did not specify for how long. This is hawkish on the margin, as it blocks Trump from nominating a potentially more dovish replacement, and means that Miran (who was the only dissenter in favour of a cut) will not continue as a Governor in June. Markets erased bets for further rate cuts and instead priced in a 40-50% probability for a rate hike during H1 2027. We maintain our relatively more dovish call with two cuts in Sep and Dec," Danske notes.

"We doubt that a more pronounced shift to the downside in EUR/USD will be triggered by hawkish Fed pricing alone. Instead, if risky assets begin to weaken more significantly as oil prices rise further, broad USD could benefit from renewed demand as a portfolio diversifier," Danske adds.

(Typo corrected)

By Justin McQueen

April 30 (Reuters) - The euro continues to hold its ground, bouncing off the 200-day MA yet again. Though resilient, spot has yet to break out of recent ranges. The weekly high at 1.1754 remains untouched, which needs clearing to shift the tone.

The real story today is JPY. Aggressive USD/JPY selling has done the heavy lifting for the euro, EUR/USD has essentially been a passenger. Intervention was confirmed by government sources, which is mildly interesting.

This feels like a tactical shift under Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Under former FX Chief Masato Kanda's framework, one market interpretation was that the trigger was a 10 yen move in a month, 4% in two weeks.

The latest episode appears different. USD/JPY was pinned in the 158-159 range since mid-March, and shortly after it poked above 160, officials stepped in. So, the market may conclude that levels matter now, not velocity, with 160 now likely a ceiling for the time being.

If so, that could somewhat limit the downside for EUR/USD by extension.

The European Central Bank were marginally more hawkish than the last meeting, but with a June hike fully priced, President Christine Lagarde had a high bar to out hawk the market.

Source reports post-meeting were clear: the discussions on policy was not if they hike, but appeared focused on when and by how much they ultimately tighten. The broader question though is whether hiking into a supply shock is actually currency-positive and the jury is still out on this one. Eventually it pulls forward the anticipated demand hit.

Technically, the level to watch is still the 200-day MA. While it continues to hold, repeated tests increase the risk of a clean break, and a flush below opens up 1.1600. To the topside, 1.1754 is the near-term pivot. Through here convincingly and 1.1830 (July 2025 high) becomes the next focal point.
USDJPY vs EURUSD


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

ANZ Research discusses Gold outlook.

"We expect gold’s price moves will hinge on developments in US-Iran negotiations in the short term. Constructive talks could stabilise energy prices and ease inflation worries. Conversely, renewed escalation would likely drive-up energy prices and inflation expectations. Persistent elevated energy prices will likely keep central banks cautious in easing monetary policy, which will support higher yield and a stronger USD. Such a backdrop would be negative for investment flows into gold," ANZ notes.

"We reiterate our view that gold will see further consolidation, with a negative bias in the short term as the market focuses on inflation and rates path. However, structural drivers are still supportive of further upside in the medium and long terms," ANZ adds.

• Cable has traded a 54 pip range since the BoE's 1100 GMT rate hold; 1.3500-1.3554

• 1.3554 is the highest level since Monday (1.3575 was the high that day)

• GBP/USD reclaimed a 1.35 handle during the London morning, as yen soared vs dollar

• Japan has intervened in FX market, Nikkei reports citing government source

• 155.50 was EBS low for USD/JPY at 1146 GMT vs 160.72 high at 0615 GMT

• U.S. commanders to brief Trump on military options against Iran, U.S. official says

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs comments on USD/JPY massive sell-off today.

"USDJPY falls sharply from this Asia afternoon as we head into a long weekend, with most of Asia off  tomorrow. 

Note Japan kicks off with golden week starting Monday to Wednesday 6th May. USDJPY last 156.70 (-2.5% from day's high of 160.72)," GS notes.

"USDJPY market volumes data - now around 57bio on the day, well above normal average Note, previous intervention volumes in 2022 and 2024, EBS volumes had gotten up to around 70 bio (for 29apr24 and 21oct22) Friday 23 January 2026 on US rate check day - EBS volumes got to around 50bio," GS adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews next week's May RBA meeting.

"We expect the RBA will hike by 25bps, but it's a close call. Inflation is above target and set to rise further, while the labour market remains too tight. However, the decision will ultimately depend on how the Board weighs upside inflation risks against downside growth risks, and we expect this debate will lead to a split decision. But the case to front-load hikes is stronger, as holding amid rising inflation could feed into expectations, pushing inflation higher," BofA notes.

"In our least likely scenario, a surprise RBA pause, we expect a more marked move in FX than rates given AUD longs appear quite crowded. AUD could slip below 0.70, but we would be buyers there," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD 0.31%, USD/JPY -2.26%, GBP/USD 0.41%, AUD/USD 0.7%

• S&P E-minis 0.37%, DAX 0.63%, Nikkei 225 -1.06%, FTSE 1.33%

• EUR/USD drops under big level as oil rockets to $126 per barrel

• USD/JPY falls from new 2026 peak as intervention worries bite

• GBP/USD weighed down by hawkish Fed, higher oil; BoE ahead

• AUD/USD respects 0.71 support level

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(added missing word to title)

• USD climbed to a new 2026 peak versus the yen, Japan issued a new warning

• USD/JPY hit a 160.72 high in London, before dropping to 159.18, EBS data shows

• Yen neared intervention levels, keeping traders on edge

• Fin Min Katayama: the timing to take "decisive" action in the market was nearing

• The fourteen-week momentum reading suggests the underlying USD/JPY is positive

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


Weekly Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oil is pushing higher amid fears of fresh Middle East escalation, adding a new layer of downside risk to EUR/USD and reviving demand for protection. FX options markets have already reacted. One-month implied volatility slumped to 5.50 this week, retracing all of its conflict-driven gains to hit its lowest since the fighting began, before rebounding sharply to 5.95 as fresh demand kicked in. One-month risk reversals have extended their recovery to 0.45 EUR puts over calls, reflecting additional risk premium for downside strikes over upside.

Yet EUR/USD's actual downside during the conflict has remained surprisingly contained — and that is the key to this trade.

That dynamic favours the EUR put Reverse-Knock-Out, or RKO — a structure that has been a go-to hedge since the conflict began and remains well-suited to the current environment.

While a vanilla EUR put gives the holder the right to sell EUR/USD at a set strike, adding a trigger below converts it into an RKO. The option remains live unless spot touches the trigger before expiry, at which point it expires worthless.

That knock-out risk is what makes it cheap — and crucially, pricing models assign a higher knock-out probability precisely because the downside volatility skew runs in the same direction as the strike, compressing the premium further.

The result is a structure that offers meaningful downside protection at a fraction of vanilla cost — ideal for those who fear escalation but expect EUR/USD declines to remain limited in scope.

With volatility rebounding, risk reversals skewed for puts and spot resilient, the RKO remains one of the most efficient ways to hedge EUR/USD tail risk right now.
EUR=EBS


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EURUSD RISK REVERSALS


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds link to option expiry calendar on line 4 )

• The cash hedging of huge, soon-to-expire FX options have been keeping a stranglehold on EUR/USD this week

• Billions in expiries anchored EUR/USD near 1.1700 through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's New York cuts

• EUR/USD mildly weaker since hawkish Fed and higher oil, but more expiries Thursday maybe limiting deeper FX declines

• There are EUR 1-billion at 1.1675, EUR 1.1 billion at 1.1690-1.1700 and 1.5 billion at 1.1725 for the 10-am New York cut

• However, the 1.1700 gravitational centre fades after Thursday's cut as the last of the big strikes roll off

• Friday brings fresh anchor points — 2.5bln euros expire 1.1640-50 which may underpin any deeper EUR/USD declines short term

• Related - FX options wake up to escalating war risks
EUR/USD FX option strike expiries April 27 - May 1


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY spot smashed above 160.00 Wed's, dragging 1-month implied vol up from a 4-year low of 6.7 to 7.6 since

• Traders are buying topside strikes toward 165.00 — hedging the risk that the JPY selloff has further to run

• But the 1-month 25-delta risk reversal tells a conflicted story — JPY calls meet demand at 0.55 vol above puts

• That is unusual — normally a surging USD/JPY would see demand for topside (JPY puts) dominate the skew

• The inversion signals intervention fear — the higher spot goes, the louder Tokyo's warning bells ring

• Owning JPY calls via the risk reversals or outright, would hedge the risk of a sudden JPY surge

• Options markets are caught between chasing the USD/JPY move higher and hedging the risk of a violent JPY rescue
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3455 as Fed's hawkish tilt, higher oil prices buoy safe-haven dollar

• Brent oil rises 7% on report U.S. considering military options to break Iran deadlock

• 1.3455 is the lowest level since April 24 (1.3455 was also the low that day)

• BoE is expected to keep policy rate at 3.75% at 1100 GMT; hawk Pill to dissent

• 'Peak pound' may be over as multiple risks rise for UK markets

• 1.35 is now a GBP/USD resistance level (1.3493 was Asian session high)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sinks under the 200-DMA at 1.1675 to 1.1655 on Apr 30

• Brent $126 on report US considering military options to break Iran deadlock

• Traders started to bet on a euro rise during the ceasefire

• Net euro position flipped from short $1bln euro equiv to long $6bln

• Minor support at 1.1650 Apr 9 low and 1.1629 halfway point

Mar-Apr rise

• Sustained rise for oil prices may reassert long-term EUR/USD downtrend

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Thur as focus returns to hawkish stance ahead of RBA meeting

• Futures pricing puts chances of OCR hike on Tue at 80.4%, statement pivotal

• Strait of Hormuz impasse continues, oil surges on refreshed supply concerns

• FOMC keeps statement easing bias despite rising dissent, FFR unchanged

• U.S. initial jobless claim (poll 215k), Mar PCE & Q1 GDP advance due Thur

• AUD challenge of major 0.7250-85 resistance zone possible in coming sessions

• Range Asia 0.71145-33, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the reading from its month-end fixing model.

"Global equity markets were broadly firmer in April. In FX, the USD was broadly weaker on the month

Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be strong USD selling across the board, with the strongest sell signal in the case of the USD vs EUR," CACIB notes.

• USD/JPY unchanged in Asia after trading in a 160.08-160.46 range

• Eases early on intervention fears, light sales by Japanese names

• Buyers emerge as hawkish Fed tilt, higher U.S. yields, oil rally support

• Brent crude hits highest since June 2022 as U.S.-Iran impasse continues

• Net short yen position vs dollar biggest since July 2024 - CFTC

• Japan retail investors hold biggest yen short vs crosses since 2020 - HSBC

• Resistance 160.45-50, 161.00, support 159.80-90, 159.40-50
Crossing the Rubicon:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur, trading subdued as traders reset for May 5 RBA outcome

• Futures pricing implies probability of 25 bps hike has risen to 80%

• Test of major 0.7250-85 remains likely in run up to Tue's RBA meeting

• FOMC keeps statement easing bias (3-dissenting votes), leaves FFR unchanged

• U.S.-Iran deadlock ongoing, oil surges on refreshed supply concern

• AU Q1 export prices +0.5% q/q, import prices +0.1% q/q

• U.S. initial jobless claim (poll 215k), Mar PCE & Q1 GDP advance due Thur

• Range Asia 0.71145-33, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY down 0.1% on light Japanese sales after closing 0.45% higher Wed

• Boosted by hawkish Fed shift, surging U.S. yields; 2-yr yield up 10 bps

• Rising oil prices sap JPY; Brent hits $120 for 1st time since June 2022

• Net short yen position vs dollar biggest since July 2024 - CFTC

• Japan retail investors hold biggest yen short vs crosses since 2020 - HSBC

• Traders brace for verbal intervention as Japan markets return from Wed break

• Resistance 160.45-50, 161.00, support 159.80-90, 159.40-50

• Wednesday range 159.52-160.48, Asia range 160.08-160.46
Japan yen positioning:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -1.1% from Wed 0.58896 high as oil surges on renewed Iran war fears

• WTI above $108 a barrel as Trump talks about 'months-long' Iran blockade

• FOMC retains easing bias (but with increased dissent), leaves FFR unchanged

• NZD backs away from 0.5930 inflection point, more softness likely short term

• Futures pricing implies May rate hike probability eases to 50% chance

• Range NZ 0.5816-385, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5930 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -1.0% from Wed 0.71895 high as markets calibrate FOMC outcome

• FFR unchanged, easing bias retained but with increasing opposition

• AUD traders reducing long positions in wake of Wed Q1 CPI beat

• RBA hiking bias remains intact, futures pricing implies 69.5% of May 5 hike

• Test of major 0.7250-85 remains likely on shoulder of Tue's RBA meeting

• U.S.-Iran deadlock ongoing, oil surges on refreshed supply concern

• AU Q1 import/export price data, U.S. Mar PCE & Q1 GDP advance due Thur

• Overnight range 0.71019-665, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research previews the April BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday.

"We expect a hold from the BoE with a 7-2 vote (some risk of 8-1). We do not think there is enough evidence yet to convince the BoE to respond to the energy shock. Data so far has been somewhat hawkish but reflects limited decisive evidence on the fallout from the conflict. Moreover, comments from BoE Governor Bailey that he is in no rush to raise rates imply that the bar for an April hike is fairly high. Overall, we expect the BoE to emphasize a wait-and-see mode as it gathers more evidence on the economic impact of the conflict," BofA notes.

"The ECB is likely to hold rates next week, but the focus will likely be its communication, which we expect to be very close to what we have already heard from many ECB speakers. As President Lagarde argued this week, the ECB is ready to act when it has the information it needs. That means understanding the size and propagation of the shock. Moving in April would have required news on either the size or the propagation of the shock.

• EUR/USD -0.3% post-Fed, back testing the 200-day MA - a level that has held as a floor so far

• Break below here would be notable and open up 1.1640

• Fed unchanged as f/c, though three dissents on easing bias makes this is a hawkish hold

• Signals that incoming Fed Chair Warsh will find it hard to lean dovish from day one

• That said, EUR/USD downside likely capped near-term with the ECB decision ahead
EURUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• GBP$ near session low in NY afternoon -0.33% at 1.3473; NorAm range 1.3528-1.3467

• Fed prudently wary of inflation, cites high level of uncertainty over ME developments

• Fed holds rates steady, cites elevated inflation; three dissents against 'easing bias'

• Traders shift focus to BoE, ECB on Thursday, no changes expected, June hikes exp'd

• LSEG's IRPR shows steady Fed in 2026; BoE seen hiking in June +81bp by Dec meeting

• GBP$ supt 1.3469/67 Wed low/100-DMA, 1.3416 100-DMA, 1.3375 daily cloud base

• Res 1.3523/28 daily conv line/Wed high, 1.3544 daily cloud top, 1.3599 daily high Apr 17

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)