Feb 12 (Reuters) - The dollar index reversed a gain following a stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation print as progress toward a possible Ukraine war resolution lifted the euro. Treasury yields jumped after a report that CPI was up 0.5% in January and its core measure rose by 0.4%, topping expectations of a 0.3% increase for both. Annualized headline CPI rose 3.0%, above the 2.9% forecast. In Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against reading too much into CPI data while acknowledging that it was not where the U.S. central bank wanted it. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said it is not clear when the Fed can cut interest rates again given uncertainty around the path of inflation and tariffs. Eyes are on PPI and jobless claims on Thursday. The dollar index gave back gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladamir Putin about starting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump spoke with President Zelenskiy afterwards and the Ukrainian leader had expressed a desire for peace.

EUR/USD surged past its 21-day moving average at 1.0382 following the Ukraine headlines, reaching a high of 1.0429. EUR/CHF rallied for a second day, climbing above its 0.9485 200-day moving average to a two-week high. Euro bulls, however, remain cautious as reports circulate that Trump trade advisers are working on plans for broad-based reciprocal tariffs and starting discussions with other countries. Europe will digest various inflation reports on Thursday. GBP/USD surrendered earlier gains and lost ground against the euro. Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene said it was right to take a cautious and gradual approach to cutting interest rates, highlighting the risk that inflation pressures will remain persistent. UK GDP for December is due Thursday. USD/JPY posted its best day since December, fueled by rising Treasury yields and bouts of short-covering. Gains slowed ahead of its 55-day moving average at 154.80 and the 155 psychological level with bulls slightly cautious as U.S. shares eased. Japan corporate good prices are slated for Thursday.

Treasury yields were up 7 to 10 basis points. The 2s-10s curve was up about 2 basis points to +26.3bp.

The S&P 500 eased 0.30% amid weakness in the energy sector.

Oil sank 2.5% on higher yields and after weekly data showed U.S. stockpiles rose.

Gold edged up 0.1% while copper gained 2.1% on supply tightness. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.27%, USD/JPY +1.20%, GBP/USD -0.03%, AUD/USD -0.16%, =USD +0.02%, EUR/JPY +1.49%, GBP/JPY +1.21%, AUD/JPY +1.06%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

(Adds chart)

• USD/JPY ralllies as Trsy yields rise after strong US consumer inflation

• Headline CPI up 0.5% in January and annual pace quickens to 3.0%

• Pair also supported by EUR/JPY raly on positive Ukraine developments

• Supp: 153.16 100-DMA and 152.75 200-DMA

• Resist: 153.80 55-DMA and 155 psychological level

• Japan to eye corporate goods prices; US PPI and jobless claims Thsdy
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a slight decline in US jobless claims and highlights PPI’s role as an input for core PCE inflation.

Key Points:

1. US Initial Jobless Claims:

   • Last week's claims rose by 11K to 219K, but no specific state saw an outsized impact.
   • The four-week moving average sits at 217K, slightly below December’s 223K.
   • Forecast for this week: 215K, indicating continued labor market resilience.

2. US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January:

   • PPI accounts for ~20% of core PCE, making it an important inflation input.
   • Any upside surprise in PPI could raise concerns about persistent inflation, affecting Fed expectations.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley expects jobless claims to decline slightly, reinforcing a tight labor market. Meanwhile, PPI will be closely watched for inflation signals, as it feeds into core PCE, a key Fed metric.

• CNN reporter reports that Trump and Putin had a phone call Wednesday morning

• Trump, Putin agreed they want to stop deaths in Russia, Ukraine war

• Trump says he, Putin agreed to have teams start negotiations

• US$, US yields softened, stocks & gold rallied

• EUR/USD rallied above the 21-DMa and daily cloud base, hit a session high

• 1.0403 traded on EBS, pair traded up +0.38% into Europe's close

• Daily monthly bull hammer candles, rising RSIs give techs a bullish lean
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole acknowledges the bearish sentiment surrounding EUR/USD due to Eurozone underperformance, political risks, and US-EU trade tensions. However, they maintain a neutral EUR/USD outlook in the next three to six months, expecting a recovery toward 1.10 in the longer term.

Key Points:

1. Bearish EUR/USD Drivers in the Near Term:

   • Cyclical Divergence → The Eurozone economy remains sluggish, while the US economy continues to outperform.
   • Political & Geopolitical Risks → Uncertainty in the Eurozone, along with potential US-EU trade tensions, weighs on sentiment.
   • Policy Divergence → The ECB is dovish and expected to cut rates further, while the Fed remains more neutral, keeping USD supported.

2. Neutral EUR/USD Outlook for the Medium Term:

   • Credit Agricole does not expect a sustained decline in EUR/USD, despite near-term pressures.
   • They see limited downside beyond current levels, as some of these risks are already priced in.

3. Long-Term Recovery Toward 1.10:

   • Over the next six to twelve months, they anticipate EUR/USD to gradually recover toward its long-term fair value of 1.10.
   • This assumes US economic momentum slows, the Fed eventually eases, and Eurozone sentiment stabilizes.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole describes the current EUR/USD weakness as “Dark Before the Dawn”, believing the currency pair will recover in the longer term despite near-term headwinds. They expect EUR/USD to remain neutral in the next 3-6 months before moving back toward 1.10 in 6-12 months.

Sterling faces renewed pressure following higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data which boosted U.S. yields and with the BoE tipped to more dovish policy, the pound is likely to continue to adjust lower ahead of Thursday's GDP and output data, and next week's UK employment and CPI reports. With markets following Fed Chair Powell's no-rush easing outlook, widening U.S.-UK yield spreads should keep the dollar firm and cap GBP/USD near 1.25.

Stronger inflation data supports Powell’s, and other Fed members assertions that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, pushing expectations for cuts into late 2025, from June-July to September-October. If Wednesday's data were to signal a trend, markets might begin contemplating a Fed hike, but that remains a remote possibility for now, with STIR futures

still discounting one more cut in this cycle before holding rates between 4-4.25% well into the future. On the sterling side of the GBP/USD equation, LSEG's IRPR predicts 2-more cuts in 2025, and 3-month Sonia futures are pricing UK rates sliding below 4% and holding there until 2030. This expectation of slightly diverging policy is likely to keep risks skewed to the downside as long as U.S. inflation persists. A close below the 30-DMA at 1.2375 would open the way for a test of the Feb. 3 low at 1.2249. More evidence of disappointing UK growth and inflation would make the the 2025 low from Jan. 13 at 1.21 vulnerable.
GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

BofA acknowledges that first-round effects of tariffs have supported the USD, but argues that a full-blown global trade war, with widespread retaliation against the US, could ultimately weaken the dollar. While the US economy is less trade-dependent than many others, it would still be more vulnerable in a scenario where it faces tariffs from multiple economies.

Key Points:

1. Tariff Risks Have Initially Strengthened the USD

   • The first-round effects of tariffs (higher risk aversion, widening US-EU rate differentials) have supported USD strength.
   • This aligns with economic theory, which suggests tariffs can drive safe-haven demand for the USD in the short term.

2. Second-Round Effects Could Reverse USD Gains

   • If US tariffs escalate into a full trade war with global retaliation, the dollar could weaken instead of strengthen.
   • While the US is less dependent on trade than some economies, it would be disproportionately affected if it faces collective global retaliation.

3. Key Factors That Could Weaken the USD

   • Details of US tariff policies – higher, broader tariffs could exacerbate inflation and slow growth.
   • Extent of retaliation – widespread tariffs on US exports could hurt corporate earnings and investment.
   • Risk sentiment – if confidence in US economic resilience falters, USD appeal could diminish.
   • Monetary policy response – the Fed may have to ease more aggressively if tariffs slow growth.
   • Long-term growth impact – structural damage to global supply chains could weigh on US productivity.

Conclusion:

While tariffs have initially boosted the USD, BofA warns that prolonged trade conflict could ultimately weaken the currency. If the US faces widespread retaliation and its economy slows faster than expected, the second-round effects could reverse the USD’s strength.

Synopsis:

CIBC sees today’s stronger-than-expected US CPI report reinforcing the Fed’s decision to remain on hold. Both headline (0.5% m/m) and core CPI (0.4% m/m) exceeded expectations (0.3%), driven by higher shelter, transportation services, and a surge in used car prices. With annual inflation now at 3.0% (headline) and 3.3% (core), this report weakens the case for near-term rate cuts.

Key Points:

1. CPI Accelerated More Than Expected

   • Headline CPI: +0.5% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected)
   • Core CPI: +0.4% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected)
   • Annual Inflation:
     • Headline: 3.0% (vs. 2.9% expected)
     • Core: 3.3% (vs. 3.2% expected)

2. Drivers of Inflation

   • Core services inflation rose to 0.5% m/m, reflecting:
     • Shelter price increases
     • Higher transportation services costs
   • Core goods inflation rebounded, led by:
     • A sharp rise in used car prices
   • Higher grocery prices contributed to headline CPI strength

3. Implications for the Fed

   • The hot CPI print supports the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
   • Market expectations for early 2025 rate cuts could be further delayed.

Conclusion:

CIBC sees the strong January CPI print as a key validation for the Fed’s decision to stay on hold. With inflation pressures still elevated, the probability of a March rate cut is now even lower.

• Cable has traded a 28 pip range since the London open; 1.2437-1.2465

• 1.2465 is four pips shy of last Friday's pre-NFP data high (Feb 7)

• U.S. CPI data due 1330 GMT: 0.3% MM, 2.9% YY f/c. Core f/c 0.3% MM, 3.1% YY

• Hotter than expected U.S. CPI data might deflate GBP/USD towards 1.2400

• Fed's Powell speaks again from 1500 GMT. Trump readies reciprocal tariffs

• BoE MPC member Greene speaks at 1500 GMT. UK GDP data due Thursday, 0700 GMT

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Feb 12 (Reuters) - FX traders should beware that USD/JPY's latest recovery attempts this week will likely run out of steam due to solid technical resistance that will prove hard to crack.

The dollar held mostly steady against other major currencies on Wednesday as traders awaited U.S. inflation data, though remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a day earlier lifted U.S. yields and lent some support against the yen.

A recent USD/JPY bear-trap under the 151.06 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 148.65 to 158.88 (December to January) EBS rise, has fuelled a recovery. A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently reverses, which is usually a bullish sign.

Gains on Wednesday have hit 153.89 so far. However the thick daily cloud that currently spans the 153.60-155.63 region, will likely limit the upside. Also 14-day momentum remains negative, highlighting the residual underlying downside risk to eventually probe last week's 150.93 low.
Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/CHF gravitates to 0.9450 after Tuesday rise to 0.9471 February EBS high

• There is a large 0.9450 option expiry later this week (Friday)

• Tuesday gains influenced by hope Russia-Ukraine war might end soon

• Zelenskiy ready to swap Kyiv-held land in Kursk for Ukrainian territories

• Safe-haven franc strengthened after Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022

• Swiss Jan inflation data due Thursday at 0730 GMT; CPI forecast 0.4% YY

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Feb 12 (Reuters) - The news that Germany's trade surplus with the United States rose to a record high last year raises the risk of an aggressive tariff response from U.S. President Donald Trump, which could weigh on EUR/USD.

Data published on Tuesday showed Germany's trade surplus with the U.S. widened to 70 billion euros in 2024, from 63.3 billion euros in 2023, courtesy of a 2.2% increase in German exports to the U.S. and a 3.4% decline in German imports from the U.S.

The timing could not be worse for Germany as the Trump administration mulls the size of the tariffs it will levy on imports from the European Union.

Putting 25% tariffs on EU exports to the U.S. might depress EUR/USD towards 1.00, if not 0.95.

Germany was the only European country on the U.S. Treasury's "monitoring list" for extra foreign exchange scrutiny when the Biden administration published its final currency report last November.

Related comments:
EURUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY's bear-trap under the 151.06 Fibo, puts the bias of the upside

• 151.06 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 148.65 to 158.88 (Dec to Jan) EBS rise

• However the thick cloud, that now spans the 153.60-155.63 region, weighs

• Also fourteen-day momentum remains negative, highlighting the downside risk

• USD/JPY Trader . Previous update

Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable hugs 1.2450 option expiry as it consolidates gains from 1.2333

• 1.2333 was Tuesday's low. Resistance levels include 1.2469 and 1.25

• U.S. Jan CPI data due at 1330 GMT: core CPI forecast 0.3% MM; 3.1% YY

• Trump administration readies reciprocal U.S. tariffs

• BoE to cut interest rates only twice more to 4%, NIESR predicts

• MPC's Greene to speak at 1500 GMT. UK GDP data due Thursday at 0700 GMT

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Bearish bias building on the daily chart

• Our 0.8318 long play looking more vulnerable

• Bearish cross, 10DMA below 100DMA, adding pressure

• Daily cloud top at 0.8334 joins the 10DMA on top

• Cloud base is rising, currently 0.8297: twist out to Feb. 17 at 0.8334-35

• Momentum readings remain negative but RSI is flat lining at 43.00

• Risk for the session is to the downside.

• EUR/GBP Trader EUR/GBP Trader: [page:2343]
EUR/GBP daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD surrenders gains, last 0.6292 from high 0.6309

• Retreat could cement bearish bias under Ichimoku cloud

• Would mark another rejection of Bollinger uptrend channel

• Multiple failed attempts to break higher will dissuade longs

• Capitulation of positions may weigh toward 21 DMA 0.6259

• UST yields edge up before US Jan CPI; core expected +3.1% y/y
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

MUFG expects USD/CNY to reach 7.50 by Q2 2025, citing rising US tariffs on China as a core risk. Trump’s “America First” agenda, US-China competition, and efforts to revive US manufacturing make further tariff increases likely, with a phased 20% tariff hike on Chinese goods expected. While China’s upcoming National People’s Congress (NPC) in March may introduce supportive economic policies, they are unlikely to outweigh trade risks and the slow property sector recovery.

Key Points:

1. US Tariffs Likely to Increase

   • Trump ordered a trade practices review on Day 1, with results due by April 1.
   • A phased 20% increase in US tariffs on China remains MUFG’s base case.
   • Tariffs will serve as a key foreign policy and negotiation tool.

2. China’s Economic Policy Response – NPC Meeting in March

   • The National People’s Congress (NPC) will set economic targets for 2025, including:
     • GDP growth target
     • Budget deficit ratio
     • Other key fiscal & monetary policies
   • However, positive domestic developments are likely to be overshadowed by tariffs.

3. Property Sector Recovery Remains a Drag

   • China’s property market remains in a long recovery phase, limiting near-term economic upside.

4. USD/CNY Forecast: 7.50 by Q2 2025

   • Trade risks and capital outflows continue to put pressure on the CNY.

Conclusion:

MUFG sees rising US-China trade tensions and potential tariff increases as key risks for the yuan, with domestic policy measures unlikely to provide enough support. As a result, USD/CNY is forecast to rise to 7.50 by Q2 2025.

• Trades 0.1% higher at the top of a 1.2438-1.2458 range - busy on FX Matching

• NIESR expects only one cut of 25bp by the Bank of England in 2025

• GBPIRPR prices 60.71 points in Bank of England cuts by the Dec 18 meeting

• There is no tier one UK data - US Core CPI m/m leads event risk

• Charts- 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages coil, as 21-day Bolli bands contract

• Daily momentum studies flat-line - a neutral setup at familiar levels

• Yesterday's 1.2332 base and then the February 1.2249 low are initial support

• Last week's 1.2550 high and then the 1.2616 2025 top are first resistance

• Close above yesterday's 1.2455 high would confirm the bullish outside day
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD holds on to 0.3% weekly gain trading 0.6295 mid-week

• USD/JPY more responsive to higher U.S. yields overnight than other majors

• AUD/JPY tracking upper hourly Bollinger Band, lending support to AUD

• Topside open in the cross until 96.75 resistance

• With tariff news subsiding, U.S. CPI later Wed is next significant event

• RBA Feb 17-18 meeting in focus amid lack of significant domestic data

• AUD range Asia 0.6289-0.6300, support 0.6230, resistance 0.6305, 0.6330
AUDJPY midday 2

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of St Barbara fall as much as 7.3% to A$0.255, their lowest levels since February 5

• The gold miner says that it is planning to separate its Atlantic Gold Operations in Canada via a sale, vend-in, or a demerger into separate Canada-listed firm

• Says it will focus on Simberi Gold operations and expansion of Simberi Sulphide Project in Papua New Guinea after divestment

• Stock up 14.4% YTD, including current session's moves

(Reporting by Manasi Dasa Sundeep in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY better bid with US yields but still below 152.00

• Asia 152.45-95 EBS so far, holding in area of 152.74 200-DMA

• Ascending 100-DMA 153.14, daily Ichimoku cloud 153.60-155.62 above

• Most hourly resistance levels cleared except 153.21 descending 200-HMA

• Tokyo back after holiday yesterday, Japanese importer Tokyo fix demand

• Higher US yields likely supportive, Treasury 2s @4.293%, 10s @4.540%

• Global inflation worries, Fed on hold resulting in some yen sales too

• No massive nearby option expiries today but some chunky strikes

• 151.00 $322 mln, 151.75 $596 mln, 151.95-152.00 $422 mln, 153.35 $317 mln

• Massive $1.1 bln up between 153.00-15 but likely out of market's range

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on the Fed

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:


Yield on US Treasury 10s:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Flat after closing up 0.53% with the USD off 0.4% as US tariffs reverberate

• Rising EZ yields supported EUR on tariff uncertainty, 10yr Bund +7bp 2.430%

• French central bank sees a return to growth in the first quarter

• EU Commission wants next EU budget to aid competitiveness, foreign policy

• Charts - 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict as 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• Neutral daily momentum studies - no significant bias at familiar levels

• Last Tuesday's 1.0272 low, then last week's 1.0125 base are initial support

• Last week's 1.0443 high, then the Jan 30th 1.0468 top are initial resistance

• 1.0340 783mln and 1.0390 866mln close strikes for Feb 12th
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Despite DXY strength, the AUD has remained resilient, supported by expectations of a "hawkish" RBA rate cut, potential exemptions from US tariffs, and cross-buying in AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD. However, trade risks from broader tariffs on China, Japan, and South Korea could weigh on Australian exports. AUD/USD target remains 0.62 by end-Q1.

Key Points:

1. Hawkish RBA Rate Cut Expected

   • Markets price in a 90% chance of a rate cut in February, but longer-term yields are rising as markets price in a more cautious easing path.
   • US tariffs could add to global inflation pressures, limiting the RBA's ability to cut aggressively.

2. US Tariffs & Potential Australian Exemptions

   • Trump may exempt Australia from steel & aluminum tariffs, but this will take months to confirm.
   • Australia’s trade deficit with the US gives it leverage in negotiations, as PM Anthony Albanese secures a meeting with Trump.
   • However, indirect risks remain, as tariffs on China, Japan, and South Korea could hit Australian iron ore, bauxite, and coal exports, which make up 35% of total goods exports.

3. Cross-buying in AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD Providing Support

   • AUD is benefiting from relative weakness in CAD and NZD, helping maintain resilience against broader USD strength.

4. AUD/USD Forecast: 0.62 by End-Q1

   • Despite strong US economic data and USD support, Australia’s economic outlook and trade considerations keep AUD from falling further.

Conclusion:

The AUD remains stable despite global trade concerns due to expectations of a hawkish RBA cut, potential tariff exemptions, and cross-buying flows. However, indirect risks from Chinese and Asian trade exposure remain a downside factor. Credit Agricole maintains a 0.62 AUD/USD target for end-Q1.

• AUD/USD probing 0.6300-05 resistance early in Asia after overnight move

• Powell indicated caution with U.S. monetary policy in a holding pattern

• Despite strength in U.S. treasury yields USD bulls were largely absent

• Australia's PM Albanese re-iterated Trump is considering AU tariff exemption

• AUD continuing to trade near the hourly upper Bollinger Band

• Overnight range 0.62615-0.63015, support 0.6230, resistance 0.6305, 0.6330
AUD mng

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)