Historically, AUD/USD tends to fall in May.
A seasonality study of AUD/USD's performance for each May since 2000 shows it has dropped in 14 of the past 23 years, or 61% of the time.
While seasonal trends should not be considered in isolation, it is useful when combined with other factors.
AUD/USD peaked at 0.6818 on Wednesday, helped by a U.S. inflation report that contained few surprises and reinforced bets that U.S.
rates have peaked and cuts are on the cards this year.
However, Thursday has seen a big reversal with spot now on course to end the week in negative territory.
Fourteen-week momentum remains negative, reinforcing the overall bearish market structure.
A failure to register a weekly close above 0.6791 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 0.7158 to 0.6565 (February to March) slump, would increase the likelihood of a negative month-end close under May's 0.6617 open.
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