Synopsis:

Credit Agricole’s FX positioning model indicates the largest EUR short positions in five years, while the USD holds its status as the biggest long, and CAD remains the largest short in G10 FX.

Key Points:

• EUR Positioning: EUR shorts hit a five-year high, driven mainly by IMM flows. Banks and corporates showed inflows, while hedge funds and real money investors recorded outflows.
• USD Positioning: The USD remains the largest long despite some selling pressure last week, influenced by hedge fund inflows, while banks, corporates, and real money investors reduced positions.
• CAD Positioning: CAD maintains its status as the largest short, though there was some buying interest last week, primarily from banks, hedge funds, and real money investors, while corporates registered outflows.

Conclusion:

Positioning data highlights persistent bearish sentiment on the EUR and CAD, while the USD remains heavily favored despite recent selling interest. These dynamics could shape near-term FX market moves.