24-HOUR VIEW EUR could test 1.1200 but the mid-June low of 1.1180 is not expected to come into the picture for today. Strong US jobs data sent EUR plummeting to a low of 1.1205. The sharp decline is running too fast, too soon and while a test of 1.1200 would not be surprising, the mid-June low near 1.1180 is not expected to come into the picture for today. On the upside, only a move above 1.1260 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized (minor resistance is at 1.1245).
1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected trade with ‘downside bias’ towards 1.1180. We have held the same view last Tuesday (02 Jul, spot at 1.1285) wherein EUR “is in a sideway-trading phase” but we added, “the soft underlying tone suggest the immediate bias is tilted to the downside”. However, the expected ‘solid support’ at 1.1220 (bottom of the expected 1.1220/1.1340 range) did not materialize as EUR crashed to a low of 1.1205 last Friday (05 Jul). Downward momentum has improved even though not by as much as we would like. From here, EUR is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ towards the midJune low near 1.1180. A dip below this level is not ruled out but at this stage, the risk for a break of the year’s low at 1.1106 is not high. On the upside, only a move above the strong resistance at 1.1290 would indicate the current downward pressure has eased.
24-HOUR VIEW GBP is expected consolidate its loss and trade sideways, expected to be within a 1.2490/1.2560 range. The sharp decline in GBP that sliced through last month’s 1.2507 low came as a surprise (low of 1.2481 last Friday). The subsequent sharp bounce from the low amidst oversold conditions suggest 1.2481 could be a short-term bottom. That said, it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. GBP is more likely to consolidate its loss and trade sideways at these lower levels, expected to be within a 1.2490/1.2560 range.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is in under pressure but odds for a fresh year-to-date low are not high for now. Instead of “probing the bottom of the expected sideway-trading phase first” (our view since last Tuesday, 02 Jul, spot at 1.2645), GBP plunged last Friday (05 Jul) and cracked June’s low of 1.2507 and hit 1.2481. The rapid improvement in downward momentum came as a surprise. While the focus from here is clearly at the year-to-date low of 1.2409 (registered in early January), the odds for a move to this level are not high for now (there is a relatively strong support at 1.2440). That said, GBP is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.2590.
24-HOUR VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6965 and 0.7005. The ease of which AUD cracked several strong support levels was unexpected (low of 0.6958 on Friday). The decline is severely ‘oversold’ and further weakness is not expected. From here, AUD is likely to consolidate and trade sideways, expected to be within a 0.6965/0.7005 range.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways. Our expectation for AUD to trade with an ‘upside bias’ towards 0.7070 from last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 0.7030) was proven wrong quickly as AUD slumped on Friday (05 Jul) and cracked the strong support at 0.6980 (low of 0.6958). From here, it appears that AUD has moved back into a ‘sideway-trading’ phase and would likely trade sideways within a 0.6920/0.7030 range.
24-HOUR VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6610 and 0.6655. The outsized drop in NZD that crashed to a low of 0.6603 last Friday was unexpected. While it is too soon to expect a sustained recovery, the 0.6600 level is unlikely to come under serious threat from here. NZD is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways, expected to be within a 0.6610/0.6655 range.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways. NZD dropped to a low of 0.6603 last Friday, just above the bottom of our expected 0.6610/0.6730 sideway-trading range (see update from last Tuesday, spot at 0.6675). Despite the large decline, downward momentum has not improved by that much. For now, we continue to hold the view that NZD is trading in a 0.6610/0.6730 range. However, if NZD were to close below 0.6610 in NY, it would indicate that it is ready to tackle the next support at 0.6560 (there is another relatively strong support at 0.6590).
24-HOUR VIEW USD could edge higher but last month’s 108.80 peak is unlikely to yield so easily. The strong and sudden surge last Friday appears to be over-extended. While USD could edge above last Friday’s 108.63 top, last month’s peak near 108.80 is a solid resistance and is unlikely to yield so easily. Support is at 108.25 but only a move below 108.00 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD to stay supported, sustained gain only if it can move and stay above 108.80. Our view for USD to test the bottom of the expected 107.20/108.30 sideway-trading range first did not materialize as it surged to a high of 108.63 last Friday. Upward momentum has improved and USD is expected to stay supported for now. That said, it has to move and stay above 108.80 in order to suggest that it is ready to move higher in a sustained manner. On the downside, a break of the strong support at 107.75 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.