Danske Research recommends going short EUR/USD via 6M seagull at zero cost.
"We generally see short-term indicators as being stretched long in e.g. positioning and the ‘recovery trade’-narrative is quite consensus by now. Thus, the surprise potential appears to be for the downside in EUR/USD, just like in 2018," Danske notes.
"We suggest to go short EUR/USD via a seagull - betting in the direction of the trend from a tactically stretched position and taking advantage of the decline in volatility and cheap wings. We choose to go short spot via a 6M seagull (long tenor, known worst case) as we do recognise it could take a few months before markets decide for a new story and Q1 could propel us a bit higher still. Key risks to this trade include a renewed, strong reflationary momentum and/or that European macro is stronger than we anticipate," Danske adds.