EUR/USD has only traded beyond 1.10 for a few weeks this year

Only 11 days traded over 1.1100

There is a low probability of sustained EUR/USD rise in 2023

It will likely take the start of U.S. easing cycle to spur sustainable gains

Traders have added almost 5 billion to long positions in last two weeks

Net long now $14.8 bln - largest since Fed's hawkish surprise in Sep

Option vol remains suppressed - reason to doubt bigger upside gains

Int/rate differentials favour those prepared to sell at elevated levels

Elsewhere traders are badly positioned for unexpected USD drop nL1N3CL0G7