Synopsis:

SocGen notes that GBP/USD is nearing the upper limit of a flattish channel in place since 2023. With the pair testing last year’s peak and MACD momentum stretched, there is scope for a pause or pullback, with 1.3060 as near-term support.

Key Points:

• Trend Structure: GBP/USD extended its uptrend after holding the 50-day moving average earlier in the month.

• Channel Resistance: Price is now approaching the upper bound of a long-term consolidation channel, coinciding with the 2023 peak.

• Momentum Indicator: The daily MACD is at multi-year highs—not yet a reversal, but it signals an overstretched rally.

• Support Level: The 1.3060 level, which marked last week’s low, acts as key near-term support in the event of a pullback.

• Upside Targets: Should the breakout sustain, next objectives lie at:

  • 1.3620 (initial projection)

  • 1.3740–1.3810 (wider Fibonacci cluster)

Conclusion:

GBP/USD’s rally is testing a critical resistance zone, with momentum stretched but not reversed. SocGen suggests tactical caution near current levels, with 1.3060 as a pivot, and upside levels at 1.3620 and 1.3740/1.3810 should the move extend.