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Bank of America Global Research maintains a bullish USD bias, expressing this view via a a short GBP/USD in spot and long USD/CAD in options.
"We take a sanity check of our tactical bullish USD view for May, especially as the late April price action was far from encouraging. While mostly rangebound, the USD has lagged key fundamentals and volatile sell-offs point to residual longs. One-off factors (month-end flows and Japan intervention) partly explain this, but the key reason is the perceived hurdle for Fed rate hikes," BofA notes.
"This has led to a notable decoupling between positive US data surprises and rate differentials. We think this is unlikely to sustain as economic divergence becomes even more evident in 2Q data. We stay long USD vs. GBP & CAD," BofA adds.
