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May 26 - 10:55 PM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Keeps To Its Range But Faces Rising Negatives

By Krishna K  —  May 26 - 09:04 PM

The Australian dollar has held within a 0.7675-0.7890 range since early May but risks a breakdown towards its April 1 low of 0.7532 on a rising tide of negatives, following recent failures near 0.7800.

China's vow to strengthen price controls on commodities including iron ore and copper - Australia's key exports - is among the factors that could trigger a downside break for the Aussie nL2N2NC0DP.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's staunchly dovish monetary policy, which practically rules out a rate hike until 2024, and signs Federal Reserve officials are edging towards starting to debate tapering their massive stimulus nL2N2NC2G1nL2N2ND2FOare also AUD-negative.

China's verbal and actual measures to curb prices of industrial metals seem to be having the desired effect with Chinese steel futures hitting two-month lows and Dalian iron ore dropping 27% from its May 12 record high nL3N2NB0VWnL2N2ND02D.

A growing perception that the RBA will likely lag its peers in tightening monetary policy will also weigh on the AUD.
Wage growth and inflation are at all-time lows and well below the central bank's target, suggesting it will stick to a super-loose policy for an extended period nL2N2N80C7.

An AUD/USD break below key support at 0.7670-75 would open a decline to 0.7585-0.7600 and 0.7532.
There is strong resistance at 0.7813-18 and 0.7845.

Previous comment nL3N2N60RU. For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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