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By Ewen Chew  —  Jun 13 - 10:29 PM
  • AUD/USD dips below 0.7700 barrier again, touching 0.7694

  • Last at 0.7704, outlook getting a bit darker for longs

  • Ichimoku Cloud converges with Bollinger band to cap 0.7712

  • Presses AUD toward 0.7683 base of Bollinger downtrend channel

  • USD gets reprieve ahead of potentially significant FOMC

  • Market wary of subtle shift toward QE-tapering talk

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jun 13 - 07:51 PM
  • AUD/USD perks up slightly Mon after steep drop; last 0.7710

  • Bearish triggers confirmed after plunge through Ichimoku Cloud

  • Also inside Bollinger downtrend channel, adding pressure

  • Closing above 0.7712 needed to escape downward trajectory

  • Tad higher US yields, after recent falls, lend USD broad support

  • Australia'a Victoria expects to further ease virus curbs nL2N2NV00P

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jun 11 - 04:00 PM
  • IMM spec USD short rose in Jun 2-8 period despite +0.25% $IDX nL2N2NT20R

  • EUR fell 0.33% in period specs sold 2,109 contracts now long 107,213

  • JPY gained 0.02% JPY short reduced by 9,801 contract, specs short 37,314

  • GBP gained 0.01% in period, specs +3,589 contracts long increased to 27,714

  • AUD short rises, specs sell 7,512 contracts, short raised to 9,437

  • CAD -0.34%, though remains anchored near 6-yr lows; specs -3,491 contracts

  • BTC -7.43% in period, holds by 2021 lows, specs bottom fish +261 contracts


IMM Position Table: Click here

IMM Position Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 11 - 02:51 PM
  • USD/JPY up 0.37% ahead of week's close as Treasury yields stabilize

  • Week's 109.19-30 lows held key Fibos and moving average supports

  • Prices now probing the tenkan & 50% of the post-NFP drop at 109.76

  • A close above would eye big 110 expiries & June's twin 110.325 EBS tops

  • US retail sales Tuesday eyed next, then Fed Wednesday and BOJ Friday

  • Fed seen steady, but statement, econ projections, dots may be bullish

  • BOJ likely to extend pandemic aid nL3N2NT058 with rates bottomed

  • Japan pandemic recovery struggling vs US due to low vaccination rate

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 11 - 01:59 PM
  • AUD/USD rallies to 0.77755 overnight, UST yield & US$ drops aid the gains

  • US rates then rally, turn positive & help drive broad based US$ buying

  • AUD/USD falls sharply, NY opens near 0.7750, slide extend in NY

  • US$ buying intensifies as US 10-yr rallies near 1.47%, Dec 2022 ED falls

  • USD/CNH lifts near 6.4000, equities fall & some copper gains erode

  • AUD/USD slide extends, hits 0.7689, bounces & sits near 0.7700 late

  • Techs lean bearish; pair below the 55-DMA, daily & monthly RSIs falling

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 11 - 01:30 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and sees a scope for a bearish pattern whilst below 110.33.

"USD/JPY has been grinding higher between converging trend lines which often times represents a trend continuation pattern. The trend preceding this grind was down from the April high of 110.97. A break below technical supports from 109.14-109.25 indicates a decline to about 106.71-106.79 will follow. The timing for this dovetails nicely with the narrow cloud juncture and technical breaks in US rates," BofA notes. 

"The Ichimoku cloud is often considered support and resistance. A thinner cloud represents less support for price when declining. Bullish technical breaks in US treasuries (lower 10Y yield) tends to correlate with lower USD/JPY. USD/JPY above 110.33 would question this view," BofA adds.


BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 11 - 12:32 PM
  • Reversal in overnight US 10-yr yield, eurodollar moves drive US$ buying

  • Lift in rates drives EUR/USD below 1.2100, generates bear tech signals

  • 10-DMA crosses below the 21-DMA while daily, monthly RSIs sink further

  • Recent EUR/USD rally sellers now reap rewards, more likely to come

  • Test of 55-DMA, May 13 daily low seem likely, both sit in 1.2051/58 zone

  • break of those supports target 200-DMA (1.1991), May 5 low (1.1986)

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 11 - 10:45 AM

Credit Suisse discusses EUR/CHF technical outlook and highlights the importance of the 1.0827 level for near-term directional bias.

"EURCHF maintains its break below key support levels at 1.0931/25...Given the size of the new bearish continuation pattern, we expect to see a move to the 200 -day average at 1.0875, below which would open up the “measured pattern objective ” at 1.0829/27, where we expect the market to find a floor," CS notes.

"The risks now stay lower whilst below 1.0925/35 and next resistance at 1.0951. Above here would negate the new bearish pattern, with resistance thereafter seen at the 55 -day average at 1.0994 /10 0 4, above which would open up the channel top at 1.1029/34. We expect this zone to cap if reached to keep the market in its downward channel," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jun 11 - 09:45 AM
  • Market continues to churn within ranges, albeit with a new 1.4074 low

  • Price pivoting around converging 10 and 21DMAs, 1.4153-54

  • June 14 1.3914-47 cloud twist in play: could be exerting drag on the pound

  • Weekly action hints at bullish indecision

  • We lean bearish but range trading is clouding direction

  • Look to play the 1.4074-1.4250 range breakout

    For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 11 - 09:30 AM

Citi discusses the current market conditions and sees range bound trading in play in the near-term.

"Its likely to be leisurely end to a range-bound week, with limited conviction heading into the weekend and next week's events. US 10y yields trade at 1.44% after yesterday's CPI print," Citi notes. 

"The Fed is likely to dismiss the latest inflation print as transitory, though we think some of the details suggest inflationary pressures will persist. The ECB was not much of an event for EUR, which we think will be driven by broader USD dynamics," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 11 - 08:30 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for next week's SNB policy meeting. CACIB is core long EUR/CHF target a move towards 1.15 into 2022.

"We expect the SNB to stick to an unchanged monetary policy stance given that the price outlook remains uncertain and as the highly valued CHF still appears to keep monetary conditions too tight. While all of that is in line with consensus expectations, market impact should prove limited," CACIB notes.

"With the SNB keeping its monetary policy stance unchanged, we keep a neutral short-term view on the CHF. Our long-term view remains one of depreciation, albeit that will depend on rising selling interest for funding as for instance driven by more widespread global healing," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
Jun 11 - 08:55 AM

AUD/USD - Bullish Influences Ignored

By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 11 - 07:20 AM
  • US$ weakness overnight drives AUD/USD to a 12-session high of 0.77755

  • Drop ensues despite copper HGv1, iron-oreDCIOc2, equity ESv1 gains

  • US 10-yr yield US10YT=RR drop to 1.428% doesn't prevent AUD/USD drop

  • Broad based US$ buying helps AUD/USD fall, USD/CNH rallies near 6.3900

  • AUD/USD now sits near the daily cloud twist and the 21-DMA

  • Daily inverted hammer candle forms, suggests bears still putting up a fight

  • 55-DMA, June 10 low are support, 0.7665/70 targeted if they should break

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 11 - 06:07 AM
  • AUD/USD hit 0.7775 at 0725GMT as AUD benefitted from iron ore price gains

  • Dalian iron ore closed up 5.9% today, by three-week high nL2N2NT092

  • Iron ore is Australia's single biggest export earner

  • 0.7775 = highest level since May 26 (0.7774 was last week's peak)

  • Offers expected pre-0.78 if AUD/USD extends north (0.7796 was May 26 high)

  • 0.7797 is 61.8% Fibo of 0.7891 (May 10 high) to 0.7646 (June 3 low)

AUDUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 11 - 04:54 AM
  • Cross has pivoted 0.8600 since Ldn open following Thursday's drop to 0.8588

  • Drop to 0.8588 was fuelled by ECB's accommodative policy nL2N2NS0FH

  • 0.8590 was Wednesday's low (after hawkish comments from BoE's Haldane)

  • Ensuing climb to 0.8642 (9-day top) fuelled by EU-UK friction over N.Ireland

  • On Thursday, Macron said "nothing is renegotiable" re: Brexit nFWN2NS0VY

  • UK GDP +2.3% in April, fraction above Reuters poll forecast nL5N2NT0WD

EURGBP Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 11 - 04:20 AM

USD/JPY's daily chart has a bearish tilt and that is being reinforced by fundamentals.
A simple option strategy can be used to cover a short-term relapse.

A bearish engulfing candlestick pattern formed last week on Thursday and Friday: a smaller, white-bodied candle followed by a larger black one.
Usually that is a sign that the market is set to tumble.
A cloud twist next Thursday below 109.00 could exert magnetism, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

USD/JPY is likely to continue trading heavy with markets shrugging off inflation concerns despite high U.S. CPI data and an economic boom in the making.
The pair looks set for low-altitude flight until U.S. yields perk up again. nL2N2NT02M

To insure against a USD/JPY setback traders could, for example, buy a one-week 109.40 USD put option at a cost of 32 pips, priced with spot at 109.45.
Profit potential is unlimited if spot is below the 109.08 break-even point at the June 18 expiry.
Losses are limited to the 32 pips premium paid.

For more click on FXBUZ

Fenics Pricing Grid: Click here

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jun 11 - 02:39 AM
  • EUR/USD looks buoyant, but any gains will remain extremely hard fought

  • Multi billion option expiries and related hedging 1.2150-1.2200

  • Massive 5 bln euros there today, and another 2.5 bln on Monday nL2N2NT0A9

  • Option Implied volatility new pandemic lows = low actual volatility expected

  • Risk reversals show no directional premium - consistent with range trade

  • Option and cash markets already long EUR/USD to add upside congestion

For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/USD 1-month implied volatility Click here

EUR/USD 1-3 month expiry option risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 11 - 02:39 AM
  • Cable eyes 1.4185 after UK April GDP comes in virtually as forecast, up 2.3%

  • See: nL5N2NT0WD. 1.4185 was Asia high, before dip to 1.4166 into UK data

  • 1.4185 is five pips shy of Wednesday's high and 6 pips shy of Monday's high

  • Wednesday's high was origin of drop to Thursday's four-week low of 1.4074

  • Stops likely above 1.4200 (June 4 high). 1.4202 was June 3 high

  • 10-year UST yield fall to three-month low by 1.43% is helping weigh on USD

  • See: nL2N2NT069. 1.4082 was GBP/USD low after 5% U.S. CPI nL2N2NS1DF

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jun 11 - 02:32 AM
  • GBP extended its range base, 1.4074, and closed towards range highs Thurs

  • Bulls' advantage holding into Friday but tight trade from the open

  • June 14 1.3914-47 cloud twist losing influence

  • Risk the market settles back into its range, clouding direction

  • 14-day momentum holds positive but RSI neutral

  • On balance longs favoured while weeklies record long lower candle shadows

  • June 1 and 2021 high the target and bullish trigger point

    For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 10 - 11:56 PM
  • EUR/USD opened unchanged at 1.2176 after whippy US session

  • Break lower in US yields offset dovish ECB and hotter US CPI nL2N2NS1CSnL2N2NS1CSnL2N2NS0FH

  • EUR/USD traded in a 1.2171/91 range and is near high into the afternoon

  • USD weighed down by US 10-year yield remaining at cycle low around 1.43% nL3N2NT04R

  • EUR/USD resistance is at top of pennant at 1.2236 with sellers above 1.2200

  • Support is at bottom of pennant at 1.2133 and break eases upward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 10 - 11:27 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.27% higher at 0.7752 after fall in US yields underpinned

  • It traded 0.7746/57 and was unchanged at 0.7750/55 into the afternoon

  • AUD/USD underpinned by falling US yields and 10-year yield is at 1.43% low

  • Resistance is at the 50% of the 0.7891/0.7646 move at 0.7768

  • It has failed above 0.7760 4 straight days - with sellers ahead of 0.7770

  • A break above 0.7770 targets the 61.8 of the move at 0.7797

  • Buyers are tipped ahead of 0.7700 with support at June 3 low at 0.7646

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 10 - 09:12 PM

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke below key levels despite hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data on Thursday nL2N2NS2F2 - and until rates find a base, the EUR/USD is likely to probe higher.

The 10-year yield broke and closed below the key 100-day moving average (currently 1.498%) for the first time since September 2020 and below the 1.47% range base that had held since March.
The first target of this significant break is the 50% retracement of the 2021 low/high at 1.342%.
Stronger support comes in at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of that move at 1.239% and a fall of that magnitude cannot be ruled out.

If the 10-year yield continues on a downward path, as the technicals suggest it should, the U.S.
should broadly weaken and push the EUR/USD higher.

The EUR/USD has been consolidating since the start of May, resulting in a pennant formation on the charts.
The top of the narrowing pennant comes in at 1.2236 and a break above that level should increase upward momentum.
A subsequent break of the May 25 high at 1.2266 would put the 2021 peak at 1.2349 in focus.
The bullish scenario for the EUR/USD would be undermined if the rising base of the pennant at 1.2133 gives way.

For more click on FXBUZ

eur 2 Click here

us 10 year Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 10 - 07:21 PM
  • EUR/USD opens Asia unchanged after whipping between 1.2143/94

  • Pair fell after dovish ECB and hotter than expected US CPI nL2N2NS0FHnL2N2NS1CS

  • It reversed higher when the 10-year US yield plunged to a 3-month low

  • Bond market appears to be buying into Fed view that inflation is transitory

  • Support has formed at 1.2140/45 where decent buying is tipped

  • Resistance is at Wednesday's 1.2218 high with sellers ahead of 1.2200

  • Bias is for EUR/USD to move higher until US yields find a base

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 10 - 06:18 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.27% higher after significant fall in US yields gave support

  • The 10-year US yield fell 6 BPs to its lowest level since March 3

  • Market brushed off hot US CPI, as Fed transitory view shared by bond market nL2N2NR2Q5nL2N2NS2F2

  • AUD/USD fell to 0.7719 in wake of US CPI only to reverse when US yields fell

  • It traded to 0.7764 before failing above 0.7760 for fourth straight day

  • Resistance is at the 50% of 0.7891/0.76446 move at 0.7768

  • A break above 0.7775 targets the 61.8 of that move at 0.7797

  • Buyers ahead of 0.7700 continue to support the AUD/USD on dips

  • Falling US Treasury yields should continue to favour AUD/USD longs

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 10 - 03:00 PM

Credit Agricole CIB Research expects QE tapering discussions and FX and rates vol to increase over the Summer months ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium.

"We think that the Fed’s gradual move towards the exit of its monetary easing policies should boost FX vols across the board. In that, we expect the QE taper discussions at the FOMC to intensify over the summer months and, potentially, lead to an announcement at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium on 26-28 August," CACIB notes. 

"To the extent that this boosts the USD and UST yields, it could fuel both FX and rates vol. Moreover, the thin market liquidity could further exaggerate the FX spot moves and further fuel realised and FX volatility," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
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