Today's release of CFTC IMM spec positioning data is likely to show stretched long USD positioning has come off slightly.
Over the recent IMM reporting period, the DXY had dropped 0.3 percent, with the euro rising 0.50 percent over the same period.
Last week's data release showed significant EUR/USD selling as trade anxieties owing to Brexit, U.S.-China trade and threats of U.S. tariffs in Europe, pushed net G10 USD longs to highs not seen since December 2018.
The current period's rise in the euro, owing to reduced global trade tensions, has likely led to a reduced net long position as the dollar has been unable to push the euro below March 7's trough of 1.1176 and traders have moved to book profits.
Gains in aussie, +0.78 percent, and the yen, +0.16 percent, also likely reduced net USD long position for today's release.
Recent dollar weakness in the current April 10-16 IMM reporting period, if it holds up, will likely indicate a further reduction in USD longs as the euro, aussie and even GBP have been rising, with only slight weakness in the yen.
Using euro as a proxy, the dollar's inability, despite several attempts, to make new lows sub-1.12, may stir IMM specs to join the Fed, patiently waiting for a reason to drive the dollar higher.