Synopsis:

JP Morgan has turned more structurally bullish on gold, forecasting a continued surge toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026. Their view is anchored in geopolitical tensions, stagflation risk, and structural shifts in gold demand triggered by the April tariff shock.

Key Points:

• Structural Repricing:
  The bank sees gold as entering a new pricing regime, less tied to traditional macro variables and increasingly driven by geopolitical instability and reserve diversification.

• Tariff-Induced Tailwinds:
  JP Morgan believes that the tariff-induced stagflation risks are likely to fuel safe-haven flows and drive persistent upside momentum.

• Revised Forecasts:

  • $3,675/oz average forecast for Q4 2025.

  • Targeting over $4,000/oz by Q2 2026.

Conclusion:

Gold’s rally is no longer just a cyclical move—JP Morgan sees it as a structural bull run powered by policy risk, reserve diversification, and global volatility. With real rates potentially suppressed and inflation sticky, gold is being recast as the premier hedge in the new macro regime.