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Mar 05 - 02:55 PM

MUFG: BoJ Poised for a Historic March Decision Amid Inflation Confidence

By eFXdata  —  Mar 05 - 01:30 PM


MUFG anticipates a pivotal move from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its March meeting, potentially marking an end to its long-standing negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The speculation arises from growing confidence within the BoJ regarding the sustainability of inflation, prompting a forecast adjustment for the initial rate hike from April to March, albeit at a modest 10 basis points, transitioning away from NIRP and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). This decision is deemed a close call between the March and April meetings, influenced by recent economic data and demographic trends.

Key Points:

  • Anticipated BoJ Policy Shift: MUFG forecasts a transition from NIRP, expecting a 10bps rate hike in March, a decision influenced by the BoJ's confidence in achieving sustainable inflation and wage growth.

  • Economic and Demographic Context: Despite recent GDP contractions and a slight decline in inflation, the broader economic indicators and a shrinking working-age population underscore a significant shift towards sustainable wage increases and inflation.

  • Close Call Between March and April: The decision timing remains uncertain, balancing between March and April, with BoJ's recent remarks hinting at a readiness to act sooner rather than later.


MUFG positions the upcoming BoJ meeting as a potentially historic moment, with a slight preference for a March rate hike. The decision, reflecting a newfound optimism in Japan's economic trajectory towards stable inflation and wage growth, marks a significant departure from longstanding monetary policies. However, the timing remains finely balanced, highlighting the nuanced considerations underpinning BoJ's policy direction amidst evolving economic and demographic realities.

MUFG Research/Market Commentary


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