(Removes have from third bullet)

• Stress for French bonds lower lessening - 10yr spread with Germany 139bps vs 160 high

• US/German 10-year yield spread has tightened slightly

• Brent crude highs declining from near $110 below $107.50

• Bets on EUR dropping have increased from $4 billion to $14 billion

• The drop has become stretched close to lower band 20-day/week Bollingers

• EUR/USD: Crowded shorts and a narrower spread raise risk of a rally

•
Forces influencing EUR/USD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)