ANZ Research sees a scope for NZD recovery towards 0.61 in Q4.

"We think the NZD is undervalued based on our modelling which points to a fair value of 0.61; and we maintain a positive outlook for the NZD/USD, particularly as we see the USD depreciating in the coming quarters.

Furthermore, we expect the RBNZ to hike three more times, leaving the OCR at 3.5% by March. CFTC positioning flipped net long for two weeks in mid-September, suggesting the NZD is running into buying pressure at current low levels," ANZ notes.

"Finally, the NZD enjoys a seasonal boost in Q4, particularly in December. The coming months are therefore likely to be a turning point for nominal export values for dairy and meat products, boosting corporate demand for NZD. Seasonality in risk sentiment typically plays in the NZD’s favour through the closing months of the year as well, aiding our forecast. Any easing in the conflict in the Middle East or declines in the price of oil would swing in favour of the NZD relative to the AUD or the USD," ANZ adds.