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Nov 01 - 06:55 AM

USD/CHF - COMMENT-USD/CHF Usually Suffers In Q4, Watch Geopolitics

By Martin Miller  —  Nov 01 - 05:25 AM

USD/CHF's fourth-quarter seasonal analysis suggests an underlying fragility that could lead this pair to suffer into 2024.

A study of USD/CHF's performance for each Q4 since 2000 shows it has seen a negative return in 16 of the last 23 years, including the last 5 years in a row.
While seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it is a useful tool when corroborated by other factors.

In times of uncertainty, with risk aversion on the rise, funds usually flow into the safe-haven Swiss franc.
In recent weeks there has been a rise in geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East.
Yemen's Houthis entered the fray, hardening spillover fears.
If the situation worsens, that would likely lead to significant downward pressure on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF's September and October failures to close above the 0.9163 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retrace of the 1.0147 to 0.8554 EBS drop, highlights a bull trap.
A bull trap is set when a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bearish sign.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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