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Apr 01 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT- Sterling Eyes Recent Range Highs Amid NFP, Holiday Pruning

By Paul Spirgel  —  Apr 01 - 10:09 AM

Sterling is making a run higher, rallying from its NorAm open low by 1.3773 to 1.3822 amid falling long-end UST yields.
Though position pruning may be involved as traders make adjustments ahead of Friday's NFP release, and the Friday into Monday Easter holiday which will have several major market centers closed.

Indeed, a look at Refinitiv Matching's GBP/USD volumes FXHEAT indicates a significant reduction in flows into today's NorAm session, which should become more pronounced as more trading centers move into holiday mode.

In any event, today's GBP/USD rise is likely to be capped by the 55-DMA by 1.3825, as sterling remains range bound, supported by the daily cloud base at 1.3715.
Additional resistance is at the 21-DMA by 1.3848.
Friday's NFP data EM may provide some extreme moves and a potential test of the technical levels depending on how the data comes in.

The dollar recently ended Q1 2021 with a near 4% gain as upbeat COVID recovery tones and gargantuan economic stimulus are expected to help reflate the U.S., and by extension, the global economy.
The UK, which has had similar success with its vaccine rollout, is expected to recover more quickly than the EZ, which remains mired in lockdowns.

Therefore, lingering EUR/GBP weakness is likely to help prop up GBP/USD as trapped EUR longs continue to unwind 1099741NNET.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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