The first quarter was the quietest quarter on record for EUR/USD traders.
When it's quiet, cash heads to higher-yielding assets, and for EUR/USD that means one thing, it will get sold.
Volatility has halved from the highs of November 2018 and the euro has dropped 4 percent in value since September nL1N21T04I nL1N21T04P.
EUR/USD has staged a clearly defined series of lower ranges this year.
Peaks for that series seen at 1.14710 Jan.
10, 1.1514 Jan.
31 and 1.1448 March 20.
A continuation of that slow-paced decline is likely this year.
It may pay to await opportunities to sell closer to the limits of expected ranges, which should logically now be lower than 1.1448, but it also pays just to be short.
FX movement that can erode possible interest rate returns is minimal and a brief wait should see the pair return to any entry point for established shorts.
Returns have rarely been bigger, 362 pips over the course of a year, a near multi-decade high.
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