Synopsis:

BofA anticipates a strong rebound in nonfarm payrolls for November, driven by the reversal of temporary factors that impacted the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher due to normalization in labor force participation.

Key Points:

• Payroll Growth:

  • Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to increase by 240k in November, significantly higher than October’s modest 12k gain.
  • The rebound reflects payback for temporary factors such as Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike, which suppressed October payrolls.

• Unemployment and Labor Participation:

  • The labor force participation rate, affected by the hurricane in October, is projected to recover by 0.1% to 62.7%.
  • This recovery is expected to lead to a 0.1% rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

• Wages and Work Hours:

  • Average hourly earnings (AHE) are forecast to rise by 0.3% month-over-month.
  • Average weekly hours are expected to hold steady at 34.3 hours.

Conclusion:

BofA expects a strong November jobs report, with payroll growth driven by normalization from temporary disruptions and stable wage growth. These metrics suggest resilience in the labor market as the year-end approaches.