Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a 170k increase in February nonfarm payrolls, slightly above consensus but below the six-month average. Job growth is expected to slow through 2024 as labor supply normalizes. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0%, while wage growth remains moderate at 0.3%.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Nonfarm Payrolls to Rise by 170k 📊

• Consensus expects 160k; Goldman is slightly higher.
• Hiring headwinds include a 10k drag from federal job cuts and 5k from strikes.

2️⃣ Unemployment Rate Steady at 4.0% 📉

• The natural trend is lower, but immigration policies may create upside risk.

3️⃣ Moderate Wage Growth Expected 💰

• Average hourly earnings projected to rise 0.3%.
• Wage pressures are fading, but calendar effects support a stable print.

4️⃣ Job Growth to Slow Over Time ⏳

• Immigration-driven labor supply growth is easing, contributing to a broader slowdown.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs expects a solid but slowing labor market, with payrolls rising 170k and unemployment holding at 4.0%. While hiring remains resilient, structural factors like immigration trends and policy shifts could impact labor supply in the months ahead.