Corrects the month to August in paragraph two
FX traders should beware AUD/USD usually tumbles in August and this will be likely occur again this year, especially if world equities tumble again.
An analysis of AUD/USD's August performance since 2000 shows it has dropped in 18 of the past 24 years, including in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but combined with other factors, it can be a useful tool.
Global stocks rallied on Tuesday, partly reversing some of the previous day's brutal decline.
A new sell-off in global stocks would lean on AUD/USD as in times of uncertainty, funds usually exit the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD is on course to lose ground for four weeks in a row, highlighting a negative structural bias.
The risk is growing for a much bigger drop to retest the October 2023 0.6271 low, especially as fourteen-week momentum turned negative last week.
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