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Oct 04 - 09:55 AM

Danske: Is Japan Intervening? The Swift Reversal in USD/JPY Raises Eyebrows

By eFXdata  —  Oct 04 - 08:46 AM

Danske Bank shares its observations on the surprising dynamics of the USD/JPY, suggesting possible intervention by Japanese authorities. The pair's dramatic oscillation, especially after touching a notable peak, prompts the bank to discuss potential future trends and implications for the JPY amidst a backdrop of significant global yield disparities.

Key Highlights:

1. Possible MoF Intervention:

  • After reaching the 150.00 mark, the USD/JPY underwent a sudden drop, hinting at potential intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF).
  • Such interventions, while offering transient stabilization to the JPY, might not be sufficient to deter its overarching depreciation trajectory, especially given the continuous spread widening in yields.

2. Yield Spread Dynamics:

  • US yields have witnessed an impressive surge this week, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury note surpassing the 4.75% threshold, levels last recorded in August 2007.
  • In contrast, Japanese 10-year government bond yields have largely been static around 0.76%.
  • The substantial divergence in these yields predominantly supports a stronger USD/JPY stance.

3. Forward-Looking Perspectives:

  • Danske Bank perceives a restrained potential for further elevation in US yields. Consequently, they anticipate relative rates to tilt towards the JPY's favour.
  • Nevertheless, short-term volatility in the currency pair is anticipated.
  • Historically, a global scenario characterized by receding growth and inflation has typically been favourable for the JPY.

Closing Thoughts:
Danske Bank sheds light on the intriguing developments in the USD/JPY currency pair and the implications of a possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Amid the context of vast global yield differences, the bank emphasizes the historical proclivity of the JPY to benefit from global downturns in growth and inflation. As market participants navigate this complex landscape, close monitoring of yield spreads and potential interventions will be paramount.

Danske Research/Market Commentary


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