ANZ Research has 2 trades hit stop loss in February: long AUD/USD and short GBP/AUD. Still, ANZ sees a scope for AUD rebound and looks to reengage on the long side of the trade over the coming weeks.
"While we have not changed our forecasts, the next month of data will be particularly important for assessing the AUD’s trajectory this year. It is conceivable that the RBA may need to pause earlier than expected, while the Fed continues hiking towards 6%. That would see the two-year yield differential widen towards -200bp, the most extreme level since the AUD was floated and a powerful headwind for the currency," ANZ notes.
"This is not our base case, at this stage, and we expect the AUD to rebound from current levels. However, should the data continue to disappoint, the risks to our forecasts lie to the downside," ANZ adds.