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Jun 23 - 05:55 AM

GBP/USD - Reform High Could Lay Sterling Low

By Robert Howard  —  Jun 23 - 03:37 AM

June 23 (Reuters) - Sterling could be in for a shock to match that exerted by Britain's 2016 vote to leave the European Union or the short-lived "Trussonomics" experiment if Nigel Farage becomes Britain's prime minister after the next general election.

With a weekend Ipsos poll showing support for Farage's Reform UK party at an all-time high of 34% - the same level that won Labour a landslide majority in last July's general election - that probability has never been higher.

The Telegraph newspaper said its analysis suggested that if the Ipsos poll results were reproduced in the next general election, expected in 2029, Reform could win in excess of 400 of the 650 seats.

The Ipsos poll, reported on the front page of The Sunday Telegraph, showed support for Labour at 25%, with the Tories on 15%.

GBP/EUR might drop to 1.10 if Farage wins the keys to Number 10, on expectations for cooler UK-EU relations. GBP/EUR was last at 1.10 in September 2022, after the pound was torpedoed by the "mini-budget" unveiled under then new Tory PM Liz Truss.

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(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters

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