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Jun 08 - 05:55 AM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-History Backs An AUD/USD Rise

By Martin Miller  —  Jun 08 - 04:25 AM

History suggests the AUD/USD usually gains in June.
There are fundamental and technical factors that could help it stick with its typical cyclical trend this year.

A study of AUD/USD's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has risen in 15 of the last 22 years, or 68% of the time.
However seasonal trends should not be considered in isolation, as they are only a useful tool when corroborated with other factors.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday raised interest rates by the most in 22 years and flagged more tightening to come as it battles to restrain surging inflation, stunning markets and sending bond yields flying. nL1N2XU081 That should continue to underpin the Australian dollar in the days and weeks ahead and potentially send it higher against its peers.

AUD/USD recovered from the 2022 0.6829 low last week, to break above the 0.7245 Fibo, a 50% retrace of the 0.7661 to 0.6829 (2022) drop.
However, spot failed to register a weekly close above 0.7245.
Spot needs to remain above 0.7245 in order to uphold June's positive cyclical trend this year.
Related comment nL1N2XS08E

For more click on FXBUZ

AUD/USD Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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