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Nov 12 - 05:00 PM
GBP: Staying On Caution Side Of GBP But Keep Targeting EUR/GBP Higher For 0.8750 - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 03:15 PM

Danske Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a cautious bias but sees a scope for EUR/GBP to recover towards 0.8750 over the coming weeks.

"EUR/GBP went below 0.86 (to 0.857) on news that Nigel Farage suggests he will be standing down some candidates in the upcoming election. This reduces the perceived risk of yet another indecisive parliament in favour of a conservative," Danske notes. 

"We continue to stay on the cautious side of the GBP and expect continued uncertainty to eventually push EUR/GBP higher, targeting 0.875," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Bulls Still Stumped By Trump, Await Data, Trade Deal
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 01:25 PM
  • USD/JPY softer, but still in tight range after Trump's speech

  • He touted U.S. econ strength, but wants rate lower, negative ok

  • Says close to phase one deal with China, tariffs upped if not nW1N26F00X

  • USD/JPY hovering above 108.99 session low on the speech

  • Says having substantive talks with Japan on trade

  • US to announce Wed if 6-mo hold on auto tariffs will be extended

  • Focus now on Wed's US CPI, Powell testimony and auto tariffs decision

  • Friday's US retail sales a better benchmark for economy, Fed's pause

  • Bulls need a 109.37+ close -- 61.8% of 2019's drop -- to gain traction

  • 110 options hurdles and the 76.4% Fibo at 110.53 eyed on a breakout

  • Daily RSIs top-heavy. Key Fibo & up TL props are at 108.50 on Friday

Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Firm As Election Outlook Favors Conservatives, Tory Majority
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 01:20 PM
  • GBP firm into NY close +0.03% at 1.2860; NorAm range 1.2873-1.2827

  • Pair boosted slightly during Trump comments castigating Fed rate policy

  • Pair offered early, poll shows Tory lead over Labour narrowed nL9N26I01C

  • Sterling in holding pattern between recent high nL2N27S0PQ

  • EUR/GBP -0.22% at 0.8562; Tory victory, majority seen boosting GBP vs EUR

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 01:24 PM
NZD: RBNZ Likely To Cut Rate Tonight But Won't Sound Extremely Dovish - ANZ
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 11:15 AM

ANZ  Research discusses its expectations for tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"The market is tilted in favour of a 25bp cut, in line with our expectations. But the RBNZ’s forward guidance will be important and will dictate moves in the aftermath of the decision.

Overall, data developments don’t suggest that the RBNZ need to be extremely dovish at this November MPS, but they’ll be wary – not wanting to undo the work they’ve done in the past year easing monetary conditions – and cognisant that the February MPS is a long time away," ANZ notes. 

"Putting it all together, we expect that the RBNZ will leave the door ajar to an OCR below 0.75%, with the rate track dipping a smidgen below that and some equivalent words about standing ready to respond to events as they evolve. There’s no need to signal further cuts are likely, but slamming the door shut would risk an unhelpfully hawkish market reaction and tightening in financial conditions – which would be particularly unhelpful when the RBNZ’s next scheduled OCR decision isn’t until February 2020," ANZ adds. 

ANZ Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - Extends North From Pre-UK Data Low Before Trump
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 10:10 AM
  • Cable reaches 1.2851 after extending north from 1.2814 (Ldn am low)

  • That low was plumbed before UK employment data nL2N27S08WnL8N27S2VQ

  • Bids around 1.2851 based Monday's retreat from 1.2896 (high since Nov 6)

  • Ascent to 1.2896 was fuelled by an election gift for the Tories nL8N27R45V

  • Tory majority remains odds-on favourite election outcome nL2N27S0DL

  • Trump speech around 1700GMT might impact the USD nL2N27R10DnL2N27S017

GBPUSD: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 11:00 AM
USD: Still Facing Headwinds M-Term Due To 3 Factors - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 09:10 AM

Citi discusses the USD outlook and maintains a structural bearish bias, highlighting 3 key factors behind this view.

"USD: Still facing headwinds due to –(1) A likely de-escalation in US – China trade tensions (notwithstanding Friday’s setback) is likely to see firmer Asia EMFX that potentially translates to firmer sentiment in the Commodity Bloc and EUR; (2) Rising US political risks – Trump impeachment risks in a presidential election year in 2020 likely poses significant challenges to President Trump’s economic agenda; (3) Risks of a deeper global economic slowdown with US possibly leading the way," Citi notes. 

 "Citi analysts comment that while it is appropriate to price-out some of the more extreme pessimism for US growth prospects, risks to US activity and inflation remain balanced to the downside. With other central banks constrained, only the Fed is in a position to deliver significant monetary stimulus – thus likely leading to USD weakness,' Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 09:48 AM
EUR/USD: To Remain Under Pressure Unless It Can Move Above 1.1090 N-Term - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 08:23 AM

UOB Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and flags the importance of the 1.1090 level on the upside and the 1.0970 level on the downside.

"Risk of a sustained decline below 1.1000 has increased slightly but there is another strong support at 1.0970. EUR closed lower for the fifth straight day last Friday as it dropped to 1.1015 before closing at 1.1016. The price action is in line with our view from last Wednesday (06 Nov, spot 1.1075) wherein EUR is expected to “trade with a downside bias towards 1.1000”. After the relatively weak daily closing on Friday, the risk for a sustained decline below 1.1000 has increased slightly. However, there is another strong support at 1.0970 and only a clear break of this level would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.0930," UOB notes. 

"All in, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.1090 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1125 last Friday)," UOB adds. 

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD - Germany's Great Expectations Are Bearish EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:25 AM
  • Germany's ZEW survey -2.1 in Nov. Way above -13 f/c and prior -22.8

  • Current conditions barely changed. All the improvement based on hope

  • German investor sentiment jumps on positive trade developments nAPN076FB2

  • Hope supports risk appetite, does not change interest rates

  • Stronger risk appetite and current rates will weigh EUR/USD nL2N27S077

  • ECB QE restarted Nov 1. EUR/USD likely to reach daily cloud base 1.1064

EUR/USD daily Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Shorts Exiting Could Be Great News For Bears
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:05 AM

EUR/USD bears remain in control, as the technical outlook is negative and a possible reduction of shorts provides space for a deeper drop in coming sessions.
In the week ended Nov.
5, IMM data showed the futures market was short by an equivalent EUR/USD cash position of 7.6 billion euros, up from 6.7 billion euros the previous week.
However, EBS flow data since Nov.
5 shows some of those shorts may have been exited, reducing the chances of a near-term short squeeze because there are fewer buy stops that might be triggered.
The near-term scope is for further losses to test the daily cloud base, now at 1.0967, in coming sessions.
Traders should be mindful that a strong defence of option barriers at 1.1000 is likely.
A break and daily close above the daily cloud top, now at 1.1064, would shift the bias back to the upside.
Related nL2N27O086

IMM Positions Chart: Click here

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - 1-Month Options Get Boost From Dec Fed And ECB Risk
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 03:50 AM
  • EUR/USD 1-month option expiry now Dec. 12, gets Fed and ECB rate meetings

  • Implied vol marked higher to 4.8 from 4.3 (record low is 4.15)

  • Gains highlight the added event risk volatility premium

  • However, any further gains likley limited with spot pinned to tight range

  • Owners need realised volatility to outperform implied, to offset decay costs

  • Realised volatility measures are now trading below implieds

  • Break below big 1.10 barriers can help underpin implied vol nL2N27R04L

EURUSD 1mth vol: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - ZEW's Expected Improvement Won't Alter EUR/USD Direction
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 02:40 AM
  • Germany's November ZEW data seen -13 from -22.8

  • Big improvement but still negative, won't alter current rates/ECB policy

  • ECB APP began Nov 1, so yet to really be felt in FX or bonds

  • Better data will support risk. Risk-on EUR/USD bet is short for carry

  • Data should add weight on EUR/USD within current 1.09-1.12 bounds

  • Daily cloud top @ 1.1064 weighs. Today's range so far below 55-DMA 1.1039

EUR/USD daily Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - Loss Of Bullish Momentum Weakens Push To 1.2900
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 02:00 AM
  • Gain consolidation just below Mon's 1.2896 peak and below 10-21-DMAs

  • 14-day momentum remains negative and RSI struggles to confirm the bounce

  • While below the 1.2916 weekly cloud base the risk is skewed to the downside

  • A fade in the 1.2890s with a tight stop above 1.2920 could work

  • Below 1.2769 and all bull bets are off and the 200DMA 1.2725 is back in play

  • We await stronger signals but might consider a short on a failure at 1.2900

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

GBP/USD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Shorts May Seek Cover As Trendline Triggers Bounce
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 12:20 AM
  • AUD/USD recoils after dip to 0.6832, likely spooking shorts

  • Bounce away from trendline support at 0.6826 will deter sellers

  • Bearish momentum running out as general FX volatility ebbs

  • AUD/USD has chance to reclaim losses on close above 20 DMA 0.6860

  • Wavering uncertainty over US-China trade deal ahead of Trump speech

  • Due to speak at Economic Club of New York later today nL4N27S0N3

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Edges Lower In Quiet Asian Session
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 10:00 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 1.1033 and traded in a 1.1036/37 range

  • Heading into the afternoon it is trading round the session low

  • Option related bids ahead of 1.1000 holding for now, but bounces are shallow

  • Support formed at 1.1015 with more support at 61.8 of 1.0879/1.1180 @ 1.0994

  • German ZEW out later today and the uS Treasury market reopens after holiday

  • Trump speaks later today and market will react to comments on US-China talks

  • EUR/USD likely to remain under pressure while 10-day M at 1.1087 caps

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Bounce Positive, But Bulls Better Off Waiting A Bit
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 09:15 PM
  • GBP/USD pulled away from Bollinger downtrend channel on Mon

  • Turn away from 1.2830 will deter bearish bets, but bulls should wait

  • 20 DMA resistance currently capping at 1.2872, may thwart rally

  • Daily closing above 1.2930 would activate uptrend channel

  • Brexit Party opting not to contest against Tories helps nL2N27S01Y

  • Affirmative victory for PM Johnson should cue temporary GBP spike

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Slightly Better Bid After Better NAB Survey
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 07:45 PM
  • Closely watched NAB Business survey showed some improvement in October nS9N25P000

  • AUD/USD slightly better bid - touching 0.6853 after trading 0.6845 earlier

  • Range trading likely, as market looks ahead to Trump speech later today

  • The state of US-China trade talks having biggest impact on AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD clinging to support @ 0.6848 with resistance at Monday's 0.6865 high

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Trend Is Up, But Plenty Of Resistance Into 109.50
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 06:20 PM
  • Flat after closing -0.2%, AUD/JPY -0.35%, on US/China trade deal uncertainty

  • No tier one data, so risk to remain the driving factor for USD/JPY today

  • Primary trend is higher, but resilient resistance in the 109.35/50 area

  • 109.32/36 weekly cloud base and 61.8% 2019 fall also held on the close

  • 109.48/49 capped late last week - 108.70/109.21 range looks viable in Asia

  • Close below rising 108.14 Kijun line needed to end the topside bias

  • 108.89 NY low then 108.69 Tenkan line are initial support

jpy nov 12 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Shorts Tread Water Near The 21-DMA
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 01:15 PM
  • Pair down slightly on day as risk sentiment sours a bit nL2N27R0G0

  • US-Sino trade, Hong Kong tensions & AU yield slip weigh on AUD/USD

  • Early NY equity slide adds weight, consolidation near 21-DMA persists

  • Falling RSIs & daily cloud top drop give techs a bearish tint

  • Fed speakers, Powell testimony could weigh if the rhetoric buoys US$

  • Comments from RBA's Bullock (Tues.), Debelle (Wed.) could impact as well

  • Investors to eye AU Oct jobs to see if economy's gentle turn is advancing

chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Heavy Inside Thursday's 108.65-9.49 Trend High Day Range
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 01:15 PM
  • USD/JPY holds 108.88, 38.2% of November's 107.89-9.48 rise

  • Thursday's 108.65/9.49 low/high are near-term breakout points

  • Overbought bearish RSI divergences, weekly Cloud above weigh

  • US-China trade deal doubts, failed 109.37 Fibo breakout weigh

  • Hong Kong unrest adding to risk-off, haven JPY bid nL2N27R0EJ

  • Partly replaced by risk-on UK election news, lifts JPY crosses

  • Burden of proof remains on bulls, trade negotiators nL2N27R0KL

  • US CPI, Powell testimony & retail sales Wed-Fri next key events

  • Week's biggest expiry is $1.86bln of 107.90s Thur by key Nov. 1 low

  • Uptrend across Aug, Oct & Nov lows is at 108.36 on Tuesday

Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 11 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Brexit Party Smoothes Sterling's Path Higher
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 10:25 AM

GBP/USD rose off Friday's 4-week low at 1.2769 rising to 1.2896 in early NY and potentially faces an easier path higher after the Brexit Party's conciliatory gesture toward the Conservatives reduced the risk of a hung parliament after the Dec.
12 elections nL8N27R45V.
It also presents hurdles to a surprise Labour victory nL2N27R0E3, which further diminishes market jitters over post-election policy direction.
The possibility of a hung parliament had been exerting downward pressure on the pound.
For now, GBP/USD bulls remain in control as the pair remains above 1.2604, the 50% Fib of October's 1.2196-1.3012.
Bulls need a rise above the thin weekly cloud, which spans 1.2916-41, and above Oct. 21's 1.3012 to reassert dominance.
Though drastically reduced IMM short positioning nL2N27O1RU1096742NNET -- with the net spec short down from August's -102k to current levels at -29k -- may inhibit future GBP/USD gains.
Reduced UK political and Brexit tensions, and the BoE likely on hold until H2 2020 BOEWATCH has tipped control to the sterling bulls. Any reversal of that sterling-positive development wouldawaken bears for a test of recent trend lows.

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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