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By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 31 - 03:50 PM

  • USD/JPY's rebound from March lows to 133.60 repelled at March midpoints

  • From Fri's 133.60 EBS high it fell toward 55-DMA & cloud base @132.58/51

  • The high couldn't reach 50% of March's slide and tenkan at 133.77

  • The falling 100-DMA and 21-WMA also loomed at 133.75/89

  • The 21-WMA was probed but not closed above in early March probes

  • That as 21-wk Bollis sharply contract, making the 21-WMA more pivotal

  • Instead, prices threaten to close below last week's 133 high & 55-WMA

  • Daily & weekly RSIs are at neutral readings after rebounding

  • Daily RSI's rebound was from O/S bullish divergence lows last Friday

  • Fading rallies favored unless the 133.77 hurdles are closed above

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 31 - 02:35 PM

  • USD/JPY's fell back from Friday's 133.60 recovery high on EBS

  • That high is by middle of March's big risk-off banking angst slide

  • That 50% Fibo and kijun at 133.77 is by the falling 100-DMA at 133.89

  • Tsy yields fell on US PCE, spending and Mich sent, inflation expectations

  • Friday's 132.60 low by 55-DMA and cloud base support key pre-ISM, NFPs

  • Month-end flows also likely lifted yen after recent risk-on pullback

  • IMM specs and options show downside USD/JPY risk if banking angst resumes

  • Thur's Fed balance sheet data showed those derisking flows subsiding

  • BoJ April 28 eyed for M-T YCC tweak, with Tokyo core CPI up again

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Mar 31 - 03:55 PM

AUD/USD - March Ends On A Soft Note

By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 31 - 01:40 PM
  • AUD/USD hit 0.6672 in Europe, NY opened near 0.6690, sat nearby into US data

  • Pair rallied to 0.6718 then hit 0.6678 after PCE & U. Of Michigan releases

  • USD/CNH rallied above 6.8700, AUD/JPY slumped, AUD/USD neared 0.6690 late

  • Equity ESv1 gains, copper HGv1 bounce helped prevent deeper AUD/USD drop

  • Monthly bull hammer is bullish but hold below 200-DMA concerns longs

  • February US ISM non-mfg, employment reports are key data risks next week

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 31 - 01:30 PM

ING Research discusses EUR/USD and GBP/USD outlook over the coming week.

"Cable is approaching some important levels. First of all, the 1.2426 December 2022 high, and then the key 1.2500 benchmark level," ING notes.

"With no obvious catalyst driving divergence between EUR and GBP at the moment, a high chance of 1.1000 being tested next week in EUR/USD equals a high chance of 1.2500 being tested next week in Cable," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 31 - 01:30 PM
  • Sterling slides into NY close-0.32% at 1.2343; NorAm range 1.2396-42

  • Pair hit March high 1.2423 in Asia trading, eyes 2023 high Jan 23's 1.2448

  • GBP bulls shrug off below-f/c core PCE data which hints at lwr Fed rate path

  • Sterling ending March up 2.7% as data hints at end of Fed hike cycle

  • Res falling 10-HMA 1.2369, Friday high 1.2432, 2023's Jan 23 high 1.2448

  • Quarter-end positioning boosts USD, higher GBP rate view to keep GBP bid

  • EUR/GBP flat into close at 0.88, Fri range 0.8806-0.8777; flows USD based

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Mar 31 - 12:55 PM

AUD: External Green Shoots - BofA

By eFXdata  —  Mar 31 - 10:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research sees a scope for AUD rally later this year on the back of external factors.

"AUD has been the worst performing in G10 in March, driven by a combination of risk-off, the dovish RBA and positioning. The trade-weighted AUD index is now close to the October lows, which is an attractive level, in our view. While China reopening trades have generally retraced lower, the pullback in AUD has been disproportionately larger," BofA notes. 

"We see signs of green shoots that bode well for China's import impulse for Australia later this year," BofA adds. 

BofA Global Research
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Mar 31 - 10:10 AM
  • EUR/GBP struggles to hold above 0.8800 as tight range persists

  • ECB's Villeroy: ECB still has 'little way' to go on rate hikes

  • EUR/GBP respects 100DMA (0.8780) again. Close below important for bears

  • Seasonals to turn bullish GBP in April

  • Further support at YTD low (0.8719) and 200DMA (0.8694)

  • Risk event ahead: ECB President Lagarde to speak at 1600BST

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 31 - 09:30 AM

Danske Research maintains a tactical and a strategic bias on USD/JPY. 

"USD/JPY increased to the 132-133 range in the last couple of days as the Japanese fiscal year is coming to an end, bringing some volatility to the JPY broadly. Additionally, investors preferred the JPY relative to the USD as a safe haven during the banking sector turmoil, which has been settling lately and hence investors are moving away from the JPY in favour of riskier assets," Danske notes. 

"Increasing USD/JPY one-month volatility suggests markets believe the likelihood of a policy change on the new BOJ governor, Ueda's, first policy meeting is growing. These movements were likely fuelled by the new deputy governor Shinichi Uchida, who on Wednesday communicated that tweaks to BOJ policy could "come as a surprise" when the BOJ thinks the timing is right, which basically makes sense since it is extremely tricky to conduct any form of forward guidance with such unconventional monetary policy as the YCC is. Any hints about monetary policy tightening via YCC beforehand would result in a heavy bond sell-off. We still like being short USD/JPY both on a tactical and strategic horizon," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 31 - 08:25 AM

ANZ Research likes to buy AUD/NZD around 1.06, and sell it around 1.09.

"The AUD’s stronger external balance and steeper discount to fair value are providing a floor, we see AUD/NZD range trading between 1.06 and 1.09 over coming months.

As such, we recommend buying the bottom of this range and selling the top," ANZ notes. 

ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Mar 31 - 06:35 AM
  • Yen selling likely flow driven during month/quarter-end and Japanese FY-end

  • U.S. yields yet to confirm weaker JPY, 10s capped at weekly peak (3.64%)

  • Above f/c Tokyo core CPI (3.2% vs 3.1%) shrugged off by JPY

  • U.S. core PCE the key focus for JPY-crosses, expected at 4.7%

  • USD/JPY above 133.00, opens up resistance at 133.80 & 133.90 (100DMA)

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 31 - 05:35 AM
  • EUR/USD slips 1.0925-1.0873 EBS on March 31 ahead U.S. inflation data

  • German import prices -2.4 mm in Feb vs -1.0% f/c (lowest f/c was 2.2%)

  • German Feb retail sales -1.3% mm vs 0.5% f/c (range f/cs -1.0 to +2.5%)

  • German unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.6% in March

  • Eurozone flash HICP 6.9% yy in March from 8.5% (f/c 7.1%)

  • U.S. Feb consumption eyed 0.3% after Jan's blockbuster 1.8% rise

  • U.S. core PCE seen unchanged at 4.7% yy in February

  • Key points EUR/USD traders should consider ahead Friday's data nL1N3630EM

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 31 - 04:40 AM

Sterling has been falling for a long time with a series of lower ranges unfolding after the global financial crisis, and the peak of the current range is probably around 1.3300.

Given the last range was roughly 20 cents, and accounting for last year's low GBP/USD is currently close to the centre of its range.
Hedging for a long period within 1.10-1.30 or 1.15-35 may be wise.

Before the chaotic events surrounding UK bond markets and the mini-budget last September, GBP/USD had settled within a rough 1.20-1.40 range, that was shattered by the slump towards parity.

Since then GBP/USD has been struggling to rise over what was the base of the prior range, that itself represented a substantial drop from the rough 1.40-1.70 extremes traded ahead the 2016 referendum.

After the referendum that drove sterling below 1.15, the base of that prior range around 1.40, effectively became the resistance area that the pound couldn't overcome.
The 100-month moving average - close 1.40 at that time - helped define the high, and the brief time spent above the 100-MMA was followed by a big and long lasting decline.

Today the 100-MMA is 1.3340, while 1.3311 is a 76.4% retracement from 1.4233 - highest level since UK voted out - to last year's 1.0327 low.
It's the limit for a correction of that drop and so is useful for hedging purposes with cause to eye pound remaining soft while below, and the potential for big gains if broken.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 31 - 04:05 AM
  • The recent failure to hold the break under the 129.74 Fibo is a "bear-trap"

  • 129.74 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 127.22 to 137.90 (Jan to Mar) EBS rise

  • The daily cloud, that currently spans the 132.70-133.16 region, will widen

  • The widening daily cloud will provide increasingly significant support

  • Bulls should be mindful of the negative fourteen-day momentum readings

  • EUR/JPY range has been 144.62-145.67 so far, on Friday. Trader TGM2336

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 31 - 02:50 AM
  • Cable hugs 1.2384 (Asian session low) after raft of UK data releases

  • UK Q4 GDP revised up to 0.1%; C/A deficit GBP 2.5 bln vs GBP 17.6 bln f/c

  • UK house prices down 3.1% YY in March vs minus 2.2% f/c - Nationwide

  • 1.2423 was nine-week GBP/USD high in Asia, after GBP/JPY jumped nL1N36308V

  • Thursday's high was 1.2393, following EUR/USD gains on German inflation data

  • U.S. Feb core PCE price index due at 1230 GMT; 4.7% YY f/c, as per Jan

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 31 - 02:45 AM
  • EUR/USD rally is stretched close top 20-week Bollinger bands

  • Speculators are sitting on a big bullish bet ($19 billion)

  • Changes in rate differentials supporting EUR/USD recently reversed

  • Option vol has sunk to a new low - implying less chance big movement

  • U.S. inflation data poses big challenge for dollar shorts nL1N3620LN

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Mar 31 - 01:50 AM
  • USD holds steady Friday as JPY weakens broadly on fiscal year-end flows

  • Yen down 0.5%, despite Tokyo core consumer prices rising more than expected

  • JPY undermined by resurgent risk appetite, waning banking crisis fears

  • USD upside limited as focus shifts to global inflation expectations

  • Sticky German inflation data raises ECB-Fed policy divergence expectations

  • EZ inflation data, U.S.core PCE price index due Fri, key for direction

  • Strong support at 101.90-102.00, loss opens 101.50-55; resistance 102.50-55

  • For more click on FXBUZ



Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 30 - 11:05 PM
  • AUD/USD opened +0.43% at 0.6711 after USD broadly weakened nL1N3622M6

  • It moved up to 0.6726 when Tokyo bought AUD/JPY first up

  • AUD/USD received an additional boost from better than expected China PMI nAZN14S7SS

  • The AXJ equity index rose over 1.0% and the mood in Asia was upbeat

  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6737 before easing back to 0.6720/25 into the afternoon

  • Resistance is at the 200-day MA at 0.6752 and March 22 high at 0.6759

  • A break above 0.6760 would likely spark fresh buying

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.6687 and 21-day MA at 0.6668

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 30 - 04:14 PM

Credit Suisse sees a scope for EUR/USD to continue its uptrend towards 1.1250 over the coming weeks.

"At the start of Q1 we wrote “a hawkish ECB framework, lower energy prices in Europe and a market fixation with US disinflation potential all leave room for EURUSD to push again towards 1.0950 near-term.”

"With that framework intact / strengthened post US bank failures in March and a stubborn ECB, we expect an extension now to 1.1250. The key view risk is that banking stress spills over into Europe or that political tensions exacerbate, though the 1.0500 level should be strong support," CS adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 30 - 10:55 PM
  • EUR/USD opened +0.56% at 1.0904 after German CPI and broad USD weakness underpinned nL1N3622M6

  • After trading 1.0902 it tracked higher on EUR/JPY buying and risk-on mood

  • EUR/USD rose to 1.0925 before offers ahead of the Mar 23 high @ 1.0930 capped

  • Heading into the afternoon the EUR/USD is trading around 1.0905/10

  • A clear break above 1.0930 targets the Feb 2 and 2023 high at 1.1034

  • Support is @ the 10-day MA @ 1.0824 and break would ease upward pressure

  • EZ and US inflation data out today as focus back on central bank expectations

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 30 - 09:45 PM
  • China mfg and services PMI for March better than expected nAZN14S7SSnAZN14S8EZ

  • Adds to upbeat mood in Asia as AXJ index up over 1.0% - E-minis up 0.30%

  • AUD/USD rising wave of optimism and is at session high above 0.6735

  • Resistance is at the 200-day MA at 0.6752 and March 22 high at 0.6759

  • A break above 0.6760 would likely encourage fresh buying

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 30 - 08:50 PM
  • AUD/USD briefly traded above yesterday's 0.6717 high to 0.6726

  • Move up was helped by AUD/JPY demand - as cross rose over 0.50%

  • AUD/USD resistance is at the 200-day MA at 0.6752

  • Reuters poll shows 14 of 27 polled predicting a 25 bp hike to 3.85% nL4N3613ZM

  • The market is only pricing in around a 13% chance of a 25 bp hike

  • AUD/USD has settled around 0.6715 - with support at 10-day MA at 0.6687

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 30 - 06:45 PM
  • EUR/USD opens +0.56% after getting a boost from hot German inflation data nL1N3622M6

  • USD broadly weakened as banking crisis concerns fade and risk assets rise

  • EUR/USD traded to 1.0926 - just short of the March 23 high at 1.0930

  • A break above 1.0930 targets the 2023 high at 1.0134

  • EUR/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 % 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment

  • A break below the 10-day MA at 1.0824 would warn upward momentum is fading

  • EUR/USD likely to consolidate ahead of EZ and US inflation data later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Mar 30 - 05:35 PM
  • GBP/USD opens 0.6% higher, set for biggest monthly gain vs dollar since Nov

  • Boosted by expectations of BoE-Fed policy divergence on sticky UK inflation

  • Supported by easing banking sector concerns which drive flows away from USD

  • Yield gap between 10-yr gilts & 10-yr UST set to rise for 1st mth since Sept

  • Focus turns to UK Q4 GDP, U.S. personal consumption expenditures data Friday

  • Thu range 1.2298-1.2393; support 1.2350-60, resistance 1.2400-10. 1.2435-45

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 30 - 02:42 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the EUR outlook through year-end and into next year.

"The EUR was hit by a perfect storm of shocks most of last year, but things have turned considerably more positive now. However, we warn that the market has once again run ahead of itself, pricing early Fed cuts, with re-pricing likely to weigh on EURUSD in the short term," BofA notes. 

"We continue to forecast EURUSD at 1.05 in h1, appreciating to 1.10 by yearend and to 1.15 by end-2024, still below long-term equilibrium. We assume that the worst of the recent bank turmoil is behind, but we remain concerned about two risks for the EUR in particular: the continued war in Ukraine and possible market pressure on Italy from the hawkish ECB," BofA adds. 

BofA Global Research
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