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Jun 17 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-UK Political Drama, Brexit Keep GBP/USD Outlook Bleak
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 17 - 10:20 AM

Don't mistake dollar weakness for GBP/USD strength.
Though cable has managed to rise off session lows, this has more to do with weak NY Fed Mfg data and expectations of a dovish Fed hold after Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
Short-term U.S. rate futures are signaling a 20% chance of a Fed cut on Wednesday, with -25bps price in for July FEDWATCH.
Today's GBP/USD gains are likely to be short-lived as sterling-specific factors keep downward pressure on GBP/USD.
With hard-core Brexiteer Boris Johnson the front-runner for Tory leadership risk of a no-deal British exit from the EU grows, which in addition to adding to UK low growth sentiment, should keep the BoE from hiking rates .
Other PM contenders have not proffered anything new, clinging to hopes for a renegotiated deal with Brussels nL9N21U01Q despite the EU's position to the contrary nB5N22W00C.
Expect any gains from outside stimuli, like a dovish Fed lean on Wednesday to be taken as an opportunity to add to GBP/USD shorts.
GBP/USD finds resistance by 1.2670, the 10/21-DMA area, and 1.2746, the falling 30-DMA.
A break below 1.2560 the May 31's recent trend low, would put the lower 30-day Bolli at 1.2477 and 1.2409, Jan 3's 1019 low, in sharper focus.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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