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May 23 - 08:55 AM

GBP/USD - Performance During UK Elections

By Justin Mcqueen  —  May 23 - 07:00 AM
  • UK PM Sunak's snap election announcement saw little response from GBP

  • Unlike recent elections, there is much more certainty about the outcome

  • Latest YouGov MRP poll points to a 154 Labour majority

  • A government majority is often the most beneficial for sterling

  • Despite this certainty. Historically, GBP falls in lead up to an election

  • Meanwhile, the prevailing narrative also matters for markets

  • This highlights that no two elections are the same

  • A sizeable labour majority could see GBP follow the 2001 playbook

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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