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Bank of America Global Research previews the BoE September rate decision, due on Thursday.
"We expect the MPC to vote 6-3 for a hold with Pill, Greene and Mann voting for a hike as in July. There is a fairly small risk that Lombardelli votes for a hike. In July she said that her vote for a hold was not a close call and policy would need to be adjusted only if there were to be evidence of risks of significant second-round effects, including from persistently higher energy prices. So far there is limited evidence of second-round effects, but she may conclude that higher energy prices can increase those risks, causing her to vote for a hike. But it's not our base case and we see this as a fairly small risk," BofA notes.
"We expect the guidance that "The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term" to remain unchanged. We expect the tone to shift more hawkish vs. July, highlighting greater upside inflation risks than before and the door kept open to a hike," BofA adds.