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Thomson Reuters
Sep 27 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Awaits Breakout Sign From Stocks, Treasuries
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 27 - 10:15 AM

USD/JPY still appears on course for a significant break higher, but it will need help from Treasuries and the Nikkei to do so. The 61.8 percent Fibo of the 2016-18 fall at 113.27 remains key resistance.
Breaking that with enough momentum to challenge the 76.4 percent Fibo at 115.33 and the March 2017 swing high 115.51 requires fuel from other markets.
The FOMC's steady rate hiking guidance, Powell's acknowledgement of the impact of more expensive dollar liquidity on emerging markets and mixed signals from today's U.S. economic data are so far keeping 10-year Treasury yields below May's 3.13 percent peak and 30-year's below repeated highs since 2015 by 3.25 percent.
Treasury-JGB yields spreads have rebounded from their post-FOMC pullback, helping USD/JPY make another run at July's 113.18 high. Also, yesterday's relatively amicable outcome to U.S.-Japan trade talks removed the threat of a conflict that could boost the safe-haven yen.
This may allow the Nikkei to surpass January's multi-decade high eventually, thus supporting USD/JPY.
Only a close below the 112.40 daily Tenkan would favor a deeper correction toward support around 111.66.

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