The pattern of EUR/USD trading since last week's strong U.S. jobs report suggests the pair may need to correct higher before the downtrend is resumed.
Friday's data was strong but EUR/USD only dropped from its week high and still got nowhere near the week's low.
That picture, which was seen on broader basis for the greenback and reflects the large and growing number of traders betting on a dollar rally IMM/FX.
If very strong data cannot lift the dollar to new highs, then the risk of a correction is raised.
EUR/USD looks to have settled into a lower range with the area of greater volume perhaps within 1.1350-1.1650 .
The failure to close below the 200-WMA at 1.1315 last week may have signalled the start of a correction towards the 1.1500-1.1550 area.
That's the middle of the probable new range and 1.1498 would meet the minimum requirement for a technical correction of the drop from September's 1.1816 high to October's 1.1302 low.
Half that move is 1.1559.
(editing by John Stonestreet)