MUFG Research discusses its expectations for the FOMC policy trajectory.

"The end of the tightening cycle is approaching and at a max we see 50bps of tightening more and certainly not the 100bps priced last week. We may see the FOMC pause after one further 25bp hike. That’s certainly what we believe the FOMC should do," MUFG notes. 

"The US inflation data this week certainly did not warrant a pick-up in the speed of tightening to 50bps but remained elevated enough to justify tightening next week on the assumption that we do not get a renewed deterioration in financial market conditions due say to another event in a regional bank in the US or elsewhere," MUFG adds.