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Oct 04 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Up By Pre-Fed Hike, Gilts Panic Levels, With Parity In Play

By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 04 - 12:20 PM

EUR/USD rose 1.6% by New York midday on Tuesday, erasing all of its post-Fed meeting and UK-led risk-off losses, with parity nearby after weaker-than-forecast JOLTS nAQN1UT0O7 reinforced suspicions peak Fed hikes have already been priced in.

Previous EUR/USD corrections of its Fed-tightening led downtrend this year ran into a well-defined downtrend line from February and the 13-week moving average, now at 1.0070/37.

Rebounds within the downtrend since April have also been thwarted by the daily cloud base, currently at 1.0066 and set to flatten out next week by 1.0050.
A close above those hurdles after Friday's non-farm payrolls report could expand the recovery toward September's 1.0198 EBS high.

EUR/USD's rebound is largely corrective, catalyzed by the BoE's intervention to halt the meltdown in gilts, which ultimately tamed safe-haven dollar bids.

Key is whether the markets, having priced in peak Fed hikes just above 4.5% last week, will be affirmed or refuted by Wednesday's ISM services and Friday's jobs reports.

Big Treasury yield drops and October stock market gains fly in the face of the Fed's mantra of higher rates for longer to tame inflation nS0N30D03JnS0N30D03J.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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