Standard Chartered Research discusses the inflation outlook for G3 currencies (USD, EUR, JPY).
"We think the doves would be outflanked if inflation persisted over 3% into 2022. It would be hard to argue, at a minimum, against a move to neutral on policy rates and even further if there were signs that long-term inflation expectations were shifting. The USD would benefit, but it is possible that low-beta currencies such as the CNH would be attractive if they had a better inflation/activity profile along with higher rates," SC notes.
"Overall, we think the most likely outcome is that the economic consequences of COVID are brought under control and G3 central banks are tolerant of modest overshoots of their targets. In other words, if inflation is above target, but there is no sign of a wage-price spiral and the inflation trend is downward, G3 central banks will not rush to tighten. This points to potential G3 underperformance," SC adds.