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Apr 20 - 06:55 AM

USD/CAD - COMMENT-Beware The USD/CAD Second Quarter Curse

By Martin Miller  —  Apr 20 - 04:40 AM

Foreign exchange traders should beware USD/CAD usually drops in the second quarter.
An analysis of USD/CAD's second quarter performance since 2000 shows it has dropped in 15 of the past 23 years, or 65% of the time.

Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but combined with other factors it can be a useful tool.

USD/CAD hit a one-week high on Wednesday as U.S. bond yields rose and Canadian data showed housing starts falling more than expected in March.
Still, USD/CAD remains well below the 1.3860 five-month peak reached on March 10.
The large upper shadow on the March candlestick continues to weigh heavily, as it signals a major rejection of the upside.

USD/CAD's medium-term bias is bearish due to the structure of the long-term chart.
In October the market faltered ahead of the major 1.4041 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.4669 to 1.2007 (2020 to 2021) drop.
There is a good chance USD/CAD will slump to retest the 2023 1.3264 low in the weeks ahead.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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