Mounting pressure from U.S. yields may push EUR/USD below the 1.15-1.18 range where it's traded for all but two weeks of the past four months.
From a tech perspective a close tomorrow below the 100-WMA at 1.1503 is needed to maintain the bearish pressure; a close below the 200-WMA at 1.1330 would trigger a more bearish phase.
A move back below 1.1448, a 50 percent correction of the rally from 1.0340, would target 61.8 percent of that move at 1.1187.
On trade below the 200-WMA, the expected range may drop to 1.12-1.15 with resistance defined by the 100-WMA and the focus for long-term ranges dropping from 1.10-1.20 to 1.08-1.18.
For those hedging the range a big and growing rate gap that rewards those holding dollars with 30 pips per month or near 400 pips per year favours a strategy to sell strength.
With the 2018 low at 1.1301, 1.1300 barriers are important, while central bank demand for dollars to replenish reserves depleted by interventions will exert growing downside pressure.
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