Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs predicts a modest rise in August core PCE prices, slightly below consensus expectations, based on recent data trends.

Key Points:

1. Forecasted Increases: Goldman Sachs anticipates a 0.13% increase in both core and headline PCE prices for August, compared to a 0.2% consensus estimate.
2. Year-over-Year Rates: The forecast would result in year-over-year rates of 2.64% for core PCE and 2.52% for headline PCE.
3. Supporting Data: The forecast is informed by weaker CPI and PPI reports for the month and a notable 7.9% decline in international airfares reported in the import price data.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs' forecast suggests a slower-than-expected rise in PCE prices for August, influenced by recent inflationary trends and decreases in specific price components.