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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
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USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 18 - 03:15 PM

The dollar extended this week's Fed-inspired gains on Friday after St.
Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard bolstered policymakers' hawkish message to markets nL2N2O0136nL2N2O01JU, which sent EUR/USD to a 10-week low.

It took a risk-off response from stocks, which ultimately pushed Treasury yields lower, to temper the dollar move.

EUR/USD fell 0.28%.
After 2-year Treasury yields spiked to their highest in a year, EUR/USD fell to a 1.1847 low on EBS, nearly reaching the 161.8% Fibo projected low off the May 25 to June 4 drop and the 76.4% Fibo of the March-May advance at 1.1842/36.
The low also nearly hit the 1.18335 weekly cloud top, with daily RSIs their mostly oversold since last February.

The dollar index's 92.408 high completed its 161.8% Fibo objective off its May-June base.
A dollar correction to reset overbought studies could offer a good buying opportunity near the 200-day moving average that initially caught EUR/USD's Fed meeting fall Wednesday, and now stands at 1.19958 by Thursday's 1.20065 high.

Sterling fell 0.75% following a bigger-than-forecast retreat in UK retail sales from April's 9.2% m/m surge nL5N2O0105 and with lingering concerns about full UK reopening due to a rise in COVID variant cases.

The pound, which had its worst week since September, marginally pierced the April-June rise's 76.4% Fibo and late April lows at 1.3806/03 with a 1.3795 low.
As with EUR/USD, GBP/USD's fall this week was likely accelerated by net spec longs having to sell.

Sterling is also highly positively correlated to S&Ps, which were having their worst week since February and probed often-pivotal 55-day moving average support ahead of the close.

USD/JPY fell 0.1% after an early low at 109.945 that was supported by 110 options interest ahead of Wednesday's 109.80 low.

The bullish initial reaction to Bullard sparked a spike to the 110.485 high, a 61.8% Fibo of the fall from Wednesday's 110.825 high to Friday's low and by popular 110.50 options expiries next week.

Friday's BOJ meeting left in place the negative policy target and zero 10-year target nL2N2NZ33G, leaving Treasury yields swings as the main factor in Treasury-JGB yield spreads.

Those spreads were thrown into disarray by the this week's pricing in of Fed tapering and eventual tightening that flattened the yield curve, allowing USD/JPY to rise despite 10-year yield spreads falling to their lowest since early March.
That normally USD/JPY bearish event was offset by 5-year yield spreads surging toward April's pandemic highs.

Aussie fell 0.65%, and hit 0.7479, its lowest since December, getting below the 50% Fibo of the November-February rise at 0.74985, but not the 50-week moving average at 0.7475.

Bitcoin and ether fell to their lowest in a week and since May, respectively.

Other than Fed speakers and U.S. existing home sales on Tuesday, there's little economic event risk until global PMIs for June are released on Wednesday.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 18 - 02:48 PM
  • USD/JPY off slightly and back by middle of the day's 109.945-10.485 range

  • Lowest 10-year Tsy-JGB yields spreads since early March limits rebounds

  • But 5-year spreads are closer to week's and 2021 pandemic highs

  • Increase Fed tightening prospect bear flattens the yield curve

  • Fed's Bullard briefly lifted Tsy yields, but mostly flattened the curve

  • USD/JPY's June uptrend intact while above Wednesday's 109.80 EBS low

  • But June and January 110.825/97 pandemic peaks loom

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jun 18 - 01:36 PM
  • GBP/USD off session lows, ends NY -0.72% at 1.3826; NY range 1.3904-1.3795

  • Pair slid initially on weak UK ret sales, fell harder after hawkish Bullard

  • Hawkish Fed take by Bullard leaves mark on sterling outlook nL2N2O01B0

  • Weak UK retail sales dents hawkish BoE narrative for June 24 MPC meeting

  • Next key GBP/USD supports 1.3670 Mar/Apr lows, 1.3463 50% of 1.2676-1.4250

  • EUR/GBP +0.46% at 0.8591, Fri range 0.86-0.8545; EUR led lwr post-Fed, RS miss drives GBP selling

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 18 - 01:20 PM

MUFG Research discusses the EUR outlook and adopts a neutral bias around current levels.

"The question now is with dollar sentiment more positive will market participants return to running large EUR shorts? The turn from long to substantial short from 2017 into 2018-19 reflected the downturn in economic growth after the false optimism of 2017 and the heightened global trade uncertainty under President Trump. Over that period EUR/USD fell from 1.2500 to around 1.1000 before COVID hit. In our view what lies ahead certainly suggests limited risks of any renewed build-up of large short EUR positions," MUFG notes.

"We believe the outlook in Europe is not consistent with a renewed large build-up of EUR short positions in the market with portfolio flows also set to support EUR," MUFG adds.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 18 - 12:17 PM
  • EUR/USD bears score wins on breaks of bull channel base, April 7 2021 low

  • Pair hits 2-1/2 year low, trades to 1.1847 on EBS and then bounces

  • Bounce occurs near 76.4% Fib of 1.1704-1.2266, daily bull hammer forms

  • Daily RSI is oversold, implies downside momentum might start to wane

  • EUR/USD still below the daily cloud & 200-DMA, rallies likely to be sold

  • Tests of April, November monthly lows still remain a possibility

  • For more click on FXBUZ




eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 18 - 10:45 AM

UOB Research discusses its updated outlook and targets for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

"EUR/USD: Going forth, EUR/USD may also draw further support from the bloc’s EUR750bn recovery fund which is on track to make its first disbursement this summer. However, the latest hawkish shift from the Fed is an important new catalyst that may have cemented the EUR/USD’s double-top at around 1.23. From here, we see a period of consolidation for EUR/USD at around 1.19 across 3Q21 and 4Q21, followed by a retreat to 1.17 in 1Q22 and 1.16 in 2Q22," UOB notes. 

"USD/JPY: With 10-year Treasury yield edging higher towards 2% by end-2021 while 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield stay tethered at 0% due to BOJ’s yield curve control, a widening yield gap would spur outwardly investment and exert upward pressure on the USD/JPY. Hence, we update our USD/JPY forecasts to 112 in 3Q21, 113 in 4Q21 and 114 in both 1Q22 and 2Q22," UOB adds. 

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jun 18 - 10:18 AM

GBP/USD fell on Friday, hitting a 6-week low at 1.3825 nL2N2O0143 after St.
Louis Fed President James Bullard delivered hawkish reinforcement to the U.S. central bank's message this week, which could hobble sterling's outlook, unless the BoE keeps pace at its June 24 MPC meeting nL2N2O00NA.

Thursday's break below key GBP/USD support at 1.3960, the 50% Fib of its 1.3670-1.4250 rise, and dip below the daily cloud led traders to reduce long positions built up this year on vaccine roll-out and post-Brexit optimism.

That enthusiasm for the pound had already started to suffer from emerging Brexit frictions and the delays to final stages of post-pandemic reopening.

As markets acclimate to the more hawkish Fed, GBP/USD could remain capped at recent highs above 1.4200 as it had been for much of May and early June.

Support for the pound comes in at 1.3803, its April 3 and May 3 low, followed closely by its recent trend low at April 12's 1.3670, with the 200-day moving average underpinning price at 1.3595.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 18 - 09:36 AM

Bank of America Global Research maintains a core bullish USD bias but argues caution in the near-term.

"Although we remain constructive on the USD post-FOMC, we would also urge for caution as we still see too many moving parts. We would not expect the USD path to be smooth. Data can be volatile given strong base effects. Inflation in particular will start coming down after the base effects are behind and could take few more months to have a better picture of the extent to which some inflation may be more persistent," BofA notes. 

"The Fed policy normalization will be very slow and the overall policy stance will remain very loose during the process. European data is also now improving during the reopening. Summer seasonality is good for the EUR, although this depends on the summer season which remains subject to risks as long as the pandemic is not over. The ECB Strategy Review this September is another important known unknown, and as we have been arguing, it could go either way for the EUR," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jun 18 - 08:38 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses CAD outlook and sees a scope for an extension in USD/CAD recent rebound on the widening of the USD-CAD short-term rate differentials.

"The CAD outlook has continued to deteriorate recently, in an interesting turn of events for hitherto one of the preeminent carry investment currencies in the G10 space. Indeed, it seems that the latest rebound n USD/CAD correlates well with the latest widening of the USD-CAD short-term rate differentials. It further seems that resilient oil prices have not been that supportive for the CAD, suggesting that the market focus remains on the currency’s loss of rate advantage at the moment," CACIB notes. 

"Next week, FX markets could focus on the release of Canadian retail sales for May," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 18 - 07:36 AM
  • Brief overnight lift meet sellers in the 0.7560/65 area, slide ensues

  • Sinking equities ESv1, rising US$ trump bounce in copper, iron-ore

  • Soured risk leads to buys of safe-haven yen, US$, AUD/JPY nears 82.75

  • AUD/USD falls below the 200-DMA, breaks April's low, hits a 6-month low

  • Pair hits 0.7511, defense for likely 0.7500 barrier options stems slide

  • Daily, monthly RSIs imply downside momentum remains though, lower levels due

  • Stops likely below 0.7500, if run Dec 21 daily low (0.7463) is targeted

  • 0.7400/05, 0.7340/50 are supports thereafter should the Dec 21 low break

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 18 - 06:07 AM
  • Dollar remains underpinned by hawkish Federal Reserve nL2N2O00LE

  • BOJ likely to lag behind U.S. in ending crisis-mode policies nL2N2NZ33G

  • Yen set to suffer a while longer as BOJ baulks at tapering nL2N2NM0B9

  • USD/JPY fell from 110.33 to 109.95 on Friday, according to EBS data

  • But setback likely to be short-lived, daily chart positive nL2N2O00H9

  • Large 110.00 NY cut expiry could limit trading in early NY

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation under +0.5, weak relationship

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 18 - 05:54 AM
  • 1.3908 is high water-mark for cable since its drop to 1.3856 (six-week low)

  • Drop to 1.3856 followed unexpectedly negative UK May retail sales data

  • See: nL5N2O0105. Subsequent rally aided by some profit-taking on shorts

  • GBP/USD was at 1.41 when hawkish Fed dot plots were published on Wednesday

  • 1.3935 (Thursday's European am low) is now a resistance level

  • BUZZ-GBP bulls need hawkish rabbit from BoE hat next week nL2N2O00NA

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 18 - 03:49 AM
  • Cable hits 1.3856 as pound suffers on unexpectedly negative UK retail sales

  • Down 1.4% vs +1.6% f/c nL5N2O0105. 1.3856 is lowest level since May 4

  • USD continues to benefit from the Fed's hawkish dot plots nL2N2NZ0XX

  • GBP/USD was at 1.41 when the dot plots were published on Wednesday

  • Bear targets include 1.3803 (May's low) and 1.3670 (April's low)

  • PM Johnson's Tories suffer shock by-election defeat to LibDems nL5N2NZ2IK

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 18 - 02:41 AM
  • Thurs saw another big fall after Wed's biggest drop since March 2020

  • EUR/USD closed sub 1.1919 Fibo, 61.8% of 1.1704-1.2266 (March-May) EBS gain

  • Market also closed under daily cloud, that spans the 1.1943-1.2054 region

  • That is the first time since April that the market closes under cloud

  • The 1.1837 Fibo, 76.4% retrace is now under threat of a probe

  • Dollar's explosion higher after Fed likely not over nL2N2NY32J

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL2N2NZ0ER

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 18 - 02:20 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.3888 after unexpectedly negative UK May retail sales number

  • Down 1.4% MM vs +1.6% f/c nL9N2LG01Z. 1.3888 is lowest level since May 6

  • 1.3896 was Thursday's low, after USD soared on hawkish Fed dot plots

  • See: nL2N2NZ0XX. GBP/USD was at 1.41 when the dot plots were published

  • LibDems unexpectedly win Chesham and Amersham from Tories in by-election

  • Leader of N.Ireland's DUP steps down after just three weeks nL2N2NZ0U6

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jun 18 - 02:08 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1900 (686M), 1.1940-50 (1.7BLN), 1.1975-80(720M), 1.2000 (620M),

  • 1.2065-70 (1.2BLN), 1.2100-10 (4.0BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9200 (500M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3960-80 (406M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7680 (549M), 0.7700 (546M). NZD/USD: 0.7270 (376M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2160 (1.6BLN), 1.2200 (1.6BLN), 1.2225 (1.1BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 109.50 (625M), 110.00 (1.45BLN), 110.50 (250M)

  • EUR/JPY: 134.10 (395M). AUD/JPY: 84.15-20 (1.3BLN)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 17 - 11:53 PM

  • +0.1% in a tight 0.7549-0.7561 range with consistent flow in Asia

  • Stable to firmer markets, E-mini S&P +0.2%, Nikkei +0.15%, AsiaxJP flat

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track south - bearish setup

  • 21 day Bolli's expand, trending signal, 0.7585 lower band, so oversold here

  • 0.7553 200 daily moving average under pressure, traded above since June 2020

  • 0.7532 is the 2021 base - close below 0.7530 would be a major negative

  • Strong close would leave a major potential 0.7530/50 range base

  • NY 0.7540-0.7590 range is initial support and resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 jun 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 17 - 11:27 PM

  • Steady in a 1.3920-1.3944 range - decent interest once Asia fully opened

  • POLL-Bank of England to look through temporary inflation rise nL5N2NZ26L

  • Economists less comfortable that growth, inflation pressures will subside

  • Charts; daily momentum studies 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages fall

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals support a strong downtrend

  • 1.3963 lower 21 day Bollinger band indicates cable is oversold short term

  • 1.3891 61.8% April June rise held - close below bearish for next week

  • 1.3960-85 456M strikes then Thursday's 1.4009 Asian high first resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 jun 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 17 - 08:35 PM

  • +0.1% - bargain hunting into the 0.75% fall Thursday, as USD shorts cover

  • No Australian data or scheduled RBA events, so risk and the USD will lead

  • Modest market moves, E-mini S&P +0.1%, Nikkei +0.2% and AsiaxJP stocks flat

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track south - bearish setup

  • 21 day Bolli's expand, trending signal, 0.7584 lower band, so oversold here

  • 0.7553 200 daily moving average under pressure, traded above since June 2020

  • 0.7532 is the 2021 base - close below 0.7530 would be a major negative

  • NY 0.7540-0.7590 range is initial support and resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


aud jun 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 17 - 07:57 PM

  • +0.05% after closing -0.4% on USD strength, as key 1.3891 Fibo support held

  • England invites all adults to get their COVID-19 vaccines nL5N2NZ3E4

  • Race between expanding COVID-19 and vaccination key for the economy

  • Charts; daily momentum studies 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages slide

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - signals support a strong trending setup

  • 1.3963 lower 21 day Bolli band indicates cable is oversold short term

  • 1.3891 61.8% April June rise then 1.3806 76.4% are initial support

  • 1.3960-85 456M strikes then Thursday's 1.4009 Asian high first resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


gbp jun 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jun 17 - 07:23 PM

  • Touch firmer after closing off 0.75% amid broad based USD short covering

  • Fed surprised market on Wednesday, long term EUR/USD positions being unwound

  • Charts; 21 day Bollinger bands expand, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track south

  • Trending setup - 1.1959 lower 21 day Bollinger suggests oversold short term

  • Next significant support is 1.1837, 76.4% March-May rise

  • NY 1.1890-1.1951 range is initial support, resistance

  • Close strikes are 1.1900 686M and 1.1940/50 1.674BLN

    For more click on FXBUZ


eur jun 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jun 17 - 05:55 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.8% lower as Fed's hawkish shift Wed continues to ripple thru

  • Fed's change of tone contrasts with doggedly dovish RBA stance nL2N2NZ00K

  • Upbeat AU jobs data ignored as RBA insists no rate rise until 2024

  • China measures to cool commodity prices weigh; copper drops 4% to 2-mth low

  • AUD may consolidate in Asia after rapid 3% fall from 0.7755, June 11 high

  • Initial support 0.7532, 2021 low; break opens 0.7499, 50% of Nov-Feb rise

  • Resistance 0.7590-0.7600, 0.7620-25, 0.7645-50; related nL2N2NZ2P5

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 17 - 03:00 PM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and adopts a bullish bias and sees a scope for the return of carry trade. 

"The move higher in UST yields has led to them becoming the driving force of USD/JPY, especially with the BoJ committing to YCC and the Fed being sanguine about the rise in long-end yields. Professional but not retail investors have piled back into JPY-funded carry trades," CACIB notes.

"High inflation outcomes in the coming months will challenge the Fed’s ‘transitory inflation’ stance and lead to the market pricing in earlier tapering of its asset purchases and even rate hikes, which will drive UST yields and the USD higher," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 17 - 02:51 PM

Money returned from whence it came on Thursday a day after the Fed signaled the start of policy normalization planning nL2N2NX1EJ, sending the dollar and the yen sharply higher as investors unwound reflation trades, to the benefit of the two main risk and carry-funding currencies.

And in an odd twist, long-term Treasury yields plunged, led by 30-year bonds falling more than 15bp and well below June's prior lows as the prospect of Fed tightening made dollar-denominated duration attractive due both to the U.S. currency's advance and diminished inflation fears.

EUR/USD fell 0.63%, hitting two-month lows, despite 10-year Bund-Treasury yield spreads flying roughly 12bp higher to their highest since February, when EUR/USD was closer to 1.21, versus Thursday's 1.1890 low.
But 5-year yield spreads remained near late April lows, though off Wednesday's trough.

Since the Fed, EUR/USD imploded below all the Fibos of the 1.1704-1.2266 March-May uptrend except the 76.4% at 1.18365 on EBS, near the 161.8% Fibo off the 1.2266-104 May 15 to June 4 drop.
The weekly cloud top is at 1.18335.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane cooled expectations for September's meeting nL5N2NZ1J4, hurting the euro further.
ECB member Jens Weidmann later lived up to his hawkish reputation nL5N2NZ4UO but did little to slow EUR/USD's fall.

Dollar gains against just about every other currency but the yen weren't dissuaded by the unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims nAPN06Z7QK.

USD/JPY fell 0.45% after its 110.825 post-Fed peak ran into sellers ahead of this year's 110.97 high from January.
This pair's higher positive correlation to longer-term Treasury yields, due to limited JGB yield movements, and broader repatriation flows produced a 110.17 low, right at Tuesday's high.

Ten-year Treasury-JGB yield spreads fell to new lows for the week, more than erasing Wednesday's rebound after the Fed.
But 5-year spreads were only modestly below Thursday's highest since early April.

The tenkan and 50% Fibo of this week's rise offer more support at 110.01 heading into Friday's BOJ meeting.
The BOJ will likely maintain current policy, as the government takes a chance on reducing pandemic restrictions ahead of July's Olympics.

Sterling lost 0.45%, reaching its lowest since May 7.
The 1.38955 low managed to hold above the 61.8% Fibo of the April-June advance at 1.3891, a break of which would put in play the 76.4% Fibo and May's low at 1.3806/03.

This week's tumble raises the risk from this year's 1.4240/50 double-top.

AUD/USD fell 0.74% amid unwinding of high-beta currency longs despite an excellent May Australia jobs report nL2N2NZ02Z.
The 0.7540 low nearly reached April's major low at 0.75325.
The drop was hastened by tumbling commodity prices in response to the U.S. dollar's post-Fed surge.

USD/CNH gained 0.25%, rising to its highest since May 7 and by its 100-day moving average at 6.4679, with Thursday's range the first wholly above the previous key support at 6.4000 since May 24, as the U.S. FCC voted to advance a plan to stop approving equipment from Chinese companies deemed to pose national security risks nL2N2NZ1LQ.

There's a drought of top-tier data in coming sessions, with focus likely to shift to June PMIs later next week and the return of Fed speakers.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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