• U.S. exceptionalism holds firm as data continues to outperform relative to the RoW

• Thursday's Flash PMIs reinforced this view as EU data came in soft while U.S. held steady

• For EUR/USD, this keeps risks leaning lower underscored by the fact that rebounds remain shallow

• Meanwhile, sticky oil prices adds a headwind that is hard for EUR to shake

• Technically, spot is trading below the 200DMA (1.1683), which keeps bear bias intact

• Reclaiming the 200DMA would be needed to alleviate the bearish pressure

• Looking ahead, all eyes on Fed Governor Waller's speech (1500BST)

• Any hawkish tilt opens the door for EUR to test 1.15
EURUSD vs eco spread


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))