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Sep 01 - 02:55 PM

ANZ: USD/JPY on the Path to 150, Intervention a Risk but We Stay Long

By eFXdata  —  Sep 01 - 02:01 PM

ANZ holds a bullish view on USD/JPY, and a long position targeting a move toward 150. The bank believes that this trajectory will hold unless there's a substantial shift in the rate outlook for either the U.S. or Japan. While intervention from policymakers could pose a risk, ANZ anticipates that mere verbal intervention, or "jawboning," will suffice until the 150 threshold is reached.

Key Points:

  • Rate Outlook: ANZ suggests that a significant change in the monetary policy outlook for either the U.S. or Japan is a prerequisite for altering the bullish trajectory.

  • Intervention Risks: Though ANZ acknowledges the possibility of intervention by policymakers to stabilize the currency pair, they believe the threshold for action is likely around the 150 level.

  • Jawboning: ANZ predicts that until the 150 mark is breached, authorities are likely to rely on verbal interventions rather than actual market interventions to influence the currency's trajectory.


For Traders:

  • Long Position: Traders who align with ANZ's view might consider taking long positions on USD/JPY, targeting 150.

  • Risk Management: Given the potential for policy intervention, traders should employ strict risk management strategies, possibly using stop-loss orders below the current market price.

For Policymakers:

  • Currency Management: Policymakers may continue to monitor the situation closely, especially if USD/JPY nears the 150 level, as this could trigger more significant intervention.


ANZ holds a bullish outlook for USD/JPY, targeting a move towards 150. While intervention from policymakers could be a risk to this view, ANZ believes that any interventions are likely to be verbal until the 150 mark is reached. Traders looking to capitalize on this outlook should employ cautious risk management strategies

ANZ Research/Market Commentary


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